NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DAL

DAL

14-23

10098

SAC

8-29

NBATue, Jan 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -4.5

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 43pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. DavisF · #3	36	19	7-23	0-1	5-7	-6	16	2
D. GaffordF · #21	22	10	5-8	—	—	+11	13	0
N. MarshallF · #13	32	15	7-10	1-2	0-2	-3	7	1
C. FlaggF · #32	35	20	8-15	2-5	2-2	+11	8	6
M. ChristieG · #00	36	11	3-13	2-9	3-3	-2	3	2
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	14	1	0-2	—	1-2	+1	1	2
K. ThompsonG · #31	27	6	2-12	2-8	—	-1	2	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	27	18	7-13	1-2	3-5	-6	2	2
R. NembhardG · #9	12	0	—	—	—	+5	3	4
Team		100	39-96	8-27	14-21		55	19
DNP: D. Powell, D. Russell, J. Hardy

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	22	9	4-7	1-1	—	+4	9	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	35	14	6-7	—	2-2	-6	9	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	31	11	4-15	1-7	2-4	+1	6	4
D. DeRozanG · #10	37	21	8-18	3-6	2-2	+2	2	5
Z. LaVineG · #8	37	20	8-19	2-6	2-2	+3	4	3
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	0	0
D. CardwellC · #32	11	4	2-4	—	—	+7	9	1
D. SchroderG · #17	26	11	4-10	0-3	3-7	-9	1	9
K. EllisG · #23	23	5	2-8	1-4	—	+2	2	0
N. CliffordG · #5	14	3	1-2	1-2	—	-9	1	0
Team		98	39-92	9-31	11-17		43	23
DNP: D. Saric, D. Eubanks, M. Monk, D. Plowden, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

39-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-92

FG %

8-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-31

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 27

DAL107@

SAC113

Jan 7

DAL100@

SAC98today

Feb 27

SAC130@

DAL121

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-19266%

SAC+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat SAC 100-98. C. Flagg led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. SAC outscored the other side 35-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 47 REB · 11 AST

GS 55

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 13

SACstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 46-58

+43pp→ 80% WP

Precious Achiuwa · enters the game for Keon Ellis

DAL4th Quarter · 4:19 · 88-87

+24pp→ 65% WP

Mavericks de · lay of game violation

DAL4th Quarter · 1.3 · 100-98

+34pp→ 98% WP

DeMar DeRozan · misses three point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	25	21	30	24	100
SAC	35	23	20	20	98

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · SAC won 2

Christie 7

Williams 10

Flagg 9

McDermott 8

Williams 8

Achiuwa 47

Marshall 9

Schroder 5

DAL

SAC

Shooting comparison

DAL

SAC

41%

39-96

42%

39-92

30%

8-27

3PT

29%

9-31

67%

14-21

65%

11-17

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 100·SAC 98
−3pp
Q4·1.0
Kings offensive team rebound
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·1.3
DeMar DeRozan misses three point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
−34pp
Q4·3.6
Max Christie personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
+18pp
Q4·6.4
Zach LaVine defensive rebound
DAL 100·SAC 98
−5pp
Q4·8.1
Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
+11pp
Q4·8.1
Keon Ellis enters the game for Russell Westbrook
· ·
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·8.1
Mavericks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
+5pp
Q4·8.1
Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 100·SAC 98
+3pp
Q4·8.1
Dylan Cardwell enters the game for Maxime Raynaud
·
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·8.1
Maxime Raynaud personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
−8pp
Q4·8.1
Daniel Gafford defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
−6pp
Q4·12.8
Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 100·SAC 98
−8pp
Q4·18.3
DeMar DeRozan offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
+8pp
Q4·21.6
Dennis Schroder misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DAL 100·SAC 98
−7pp
Q4·33.3
Daniel Gafford enters the game for Brandon Williams
·
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·33.3
DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·33.3
Kings Full timeout
DAL 100·SAC 98
Q4·33.9
Brandon Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 100·SAC 98
−24pp
Q4·40.2
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 97·SAC 98
Q4·40.2
Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan
·
DAL 97·SAC 98
Q4·40.2
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 97·SAC 98
Q4·40.4
DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 97·SAC 98
+2pp
Q4·54.7
Cooper Flagg makes 10-foot two point shot
DAL 97·SAC 96
−3pp
Q4·1:13
DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 95·SAC 96
+22pp
Q4·1:20
Brandon Williams makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 95·SAC 93
−12pp
Q4·1:37
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
DAL 93·SAC 93
−2pp
Q4·1:40
DeMar DeRozan misses 4-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 93·SAC 93
−8pp
Q4·2:05
Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 93·SAC 93
−17pp

Betting line

DAL -4.5·O/U 233.5·DAL -192/SAC +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 100–98. Decided by 2.

SAC +4.5 cashed (DAL won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Anthony DavisWSH · F
CONT9.799
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

SAC

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR