NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CLE

CLE

21-17

120116

IND

6-31

NBATue, Jan 6FinalSeriesCLE leads series 3-0VegasCLE -6.5

CLE · top performer

Darius Garland

G · #10

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Jay Huff

C · #32

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 10.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	8	3	1-2	1-2	—	-2	1	0
J. AllenC · #31	34	19	8-13	0-1	3-6	+3	12	4
E. MobleyC · #4	36	20	8-16	0-3	4-4	-1	6	5
S. MerrillG · #5	31	19	6-12	6-10	1-2	+5	4	2
D. GarlandG · #10	33	29	14-23	1-4	—	+1	2	6
Bench
D. HunterF · #12	22	12	5-9	0-1	2-2	+2	9	2
N. TomlinF · #35	21	7	3-5	1-3	—	+10	3	1
J. TysonG · #20	27	3	1-2	—	1-2	-5	2	4
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	28	8	3-6	1-2	1-2	+7	9	9
Team		120	49-88	10-26	12-18		48	33
DNP: T. Bryant, L. Ball, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	35	22	9-23	0-1	4-5	-3	4	3
J. HuffC · #32	31	20	7-10	4-7	2-2	-14	2	2
A. NembhardG · #2	30	15	6-12	1-2	2-4	0	1	11
A. NesmithG · #23	33	14	5-17	3-7	1-2	+8	8	4
J. FurphyG · #12	31	9	4-6	1-3	—	+3	11	2
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	18	10	4-7	2-4	—	-4	2	3
M. PotterC · #11	17	11	2-4	2-4	5-6	+10	2	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	18	7	3-8	1-3	—	-4	0	6
E. ThompsonG · #55	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	-10	1	0
B. SheppardG · #26	19	6	2-3	2-2	—	-6	1	1
Team		116	43-93	16-35	14-19		32	32
DNP: Q. Jackson, K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

IND

Home

49-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-35

12-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 3-0

Nov 22

IND109@

CLE120

Dec 2

CLE135@

IND119

Jan 7

CLE120@

IND116today

Apr 5

IND108@

CLE117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-24571%

IND+20033%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -6.5↗SpreadBet CLE -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat IND 120-116. D. Garland paced them with 29 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. CLE outscored the other side 36-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 71

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 29

INDstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 33.5 · 115-113

+21pp→ 43% WP

Craig Porter Jr. · shooting foul

IND4th Quarter · 10.0 · 117-114

+21pp→ 38% WP

Sam Merrill · personal take foul

CLE4th Quarter · 10.0 · 117-115

+26pp→ 84% WP

Andrew Nembhard · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	22	31	31	36	120
IND	28	32	33	23	116

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · IND won 3

Mobley 6

Siakam 7

Hunter 6

Huff 10

Merrill 6

Huff 7

Garland 14

Siakam 9

CLE

IND

Shooting comparison

CLE

IND

56%

49-88

46%

43-93

38%

10-26

3PT

46%

16-35

67%

12-18

74%

14-19

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 120·IND 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 120·IND 116
−0.8pp
Q4·2.2
Andrew Nembhard bad pass turnover (Evan Mobley steals)
·
CLE 120·IND 116
−2pp
Q4·2.8
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 120·IND 116
+1pp
Q4·2.8
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 119·IND 116
Q4·2.8
Jay Huff personal take foul
CLE 118·IND 116
−3pp
Q4·2.8
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 118·IND 116
−2pp
Q4·3.8
Aaron Nesmith misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 118·IND 116
−10pp
Q4·3.8
Jay Huff enters the game for Micah Potter
·
CLE 118·IND 116
Q4·3.8
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Ethan Thompson
·
CLE 118·IND 116
Q4·3.8
Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·IND 116
+1pp
Q4·3.8
Evan Mobley personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 118·IND 115
+6pp
Q4·5.3
Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
CLE 118·IND 115
−3pp
Q4·7.2
Craig Porter Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 118·IND 115
+8pp
Q4·7.2
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Ben Sheppard
·
CLE 118·IND 115
Q4·7.2
Craig Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 118·IND 115
−0.8pp
Q4·7.2
Andrew Nembhard personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 115
−10pp
Q4·8.8
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 117·IND 115
−2pp
Q4·10.0
Andrew Nembhard misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 115
−26pp
Q4·10.0
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Ethan Thompson
·
CLE 117·IND 115
Q4·10.0
Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 117·IND 115
+4pp
Q4·10.0
Sam Merrill personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 114
+21pp
Q4·10.5
Evan Mobley back court turnoverBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 114
+8pp
Q4·11.5
5 second violationBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 114
−9pp
Q4·11.5
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Johnny Furphy
·
CLE 117·IND 114
Q4·11.5
Pacers Full timeout
CLE 117·IND 114
Q4·12.5
Darius Garland makes 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·IND 114
−15pp
Q4·33.5
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CLE 115·IND 114
−10pp
Q4·33.5
Craig Porter Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 115·IND 113
+21pp
Q4·33.5
Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 115·IND 113
+6pp

Betting line

CLE -6.5·O/U 237.5·CLE -245/IND +200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 120–116. Decided by 4.

IND +6.5 cashed (CLE won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

IND

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR