NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

8-24

114113

MIL

14-20

NBAWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesWSH leads series 2-1VegasMIL -10.5

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 65pp · 4th Quarter · 1.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	23	0	0-6	—	—	-7	3	6
A. SarrC · #20	28	20	7-15	1-2	5-6	-5	11	2
C. McCollumG · #3	32	18	7-15	3-6	1-2	-13	4	4
B. CoulibalyG · #0	25	10	2-8	1-4	5-8	+4	5	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	28	14	5-13	4-7	—	-5	2	2
Bench
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	20	9	4-6	0-1	1-1	+6	3	4
J. ChampagnieF · #9	33	12	5-9	1-3	1-2	+4	9	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	24	20	7-14	6-11	0-1	+6	5	5
W. RileyG · #27	12	3	1-3	1-2	—	+1	2	2
AJ JohnsonG · #4	16	8	3-5	2-3	—	+14	0	2
Team		114	41-94	19-39	13-20		44	31
DNP: A. Gill, T. Vukcevic, S. Cooper, M. Branham, J. Watkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	28	33	12-21	0-1	9-14	-4	15	3
M. TurnerC · #3	31	13	4-10	4-6	1-2	+12	7	2
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	39	19	9-17	1-7	—	+10	6	5
A. GreenG · #20	34	9	3-8	3-8	—	+12	2	2
R. RollinsG · #13	39	16	5-13	4-7	2-2	+3	7	7
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	20	13	4-11	3-6	2-2	-11	5	3
K. KuzmaF · #18	21	5	2-3	—	1-2	-5	5	2
G. HarrisG · #11	11	5	2-2	1-1	—	-10	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	15	0	0-4	0-3	—	-12	1	0
Team		113	41-89	16-39	15-22		48	24
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

41-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-89

FG %

19-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-39

13-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

Oct 23

WSH120@

MIL133

Dec 2

MIL126@

WSH129

Jan 1

WSH114@

MIL113today

Jan 30

MIL99@

WSH109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+38021%

MIL-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -10.5↗SpreadBet MIL -10.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat MIL 114-113. A. Sarr led with 20 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. CJ McCollum's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (65pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 53

MILstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 37 REB · 19 AST

GS 70

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 2:02 · 110-110

+17pp→ 44% WP

Ryan Rollins · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)

MIL4th Quarter · 1:28 · 110-110

+18pp→ 70% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · personal foul

WSH4th Quarter · 1.2 · 114-113

+65pp→ 95% WP

CJ McCollum · makes 16-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	30	35	21	28	114
MIL	32	30	26	25	113

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · MIL won 2

Johnson 6

Antetokounmpo 10

Sarr 10

Jr. 13

McCollum 7

Antetokounmpo 19

Carrington 14

Portis 9

WSH

MIL

Shooting comparison

WSH

MIL

44%

41-94

46%

41-89

49%

19-39

3PT

41%

16-39

65%

13-20

68%

15-22

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 114·MIL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 114·MIL 113
Q4·0.1
Bucks offensive team rebound
WSH 114·MIL 113
−0.9pp
Q4·0.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 13-foot jumper
·
WSH 114·MIL 113
−3pp
Q4·1.0
Justin Champagnie enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
WSH 114·MIL 113
Q4·1.0
Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Tre Johnson
· ·
WSH 114·MIL 113
Q4·1.0
Kyle Kuzma enters the game for Myles Turner
·
WSH 114·MIL 113
Q4·1.0
Bucks Full timeout
WSH 114·MIL 113
−1pp
Q4·1.2
CJ McCollum makes 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 114·MIL 113
−65pp
Q4·6.5
CJ McCollum defensive rebound
WSH 112·MIL 113
+5pp
Q4·8.3
Alex Sarr blocks Giannis Antetokounmpo's two point shotBIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 112·MIL 113
−8pp
Q4·9.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 112·MIL 113
+15pp
Q4·10.0
Kevin Porter Jr. misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 112·MIL 113
−10pp
Q4·30.2
CJ McCollum makes layup (Khris Middleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 112·MIL 113
−9pp
Q4·33.2
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 110·MIL 113
Q4·33.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 110·MIL 113
−8pp
Q4·33.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
WSH 110·MIL 112
+2pp
Q4·33.2
Khris Middleton personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·MIL 111
+15pp
Q4·33.2
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
WSH 110·MIL 111
+3pp
Q4·34.5
Tre Johnson misses 10-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 110·MIL 111
+10pp
Q4·44.5
Alex Sarr defensive rebound
WSH 110·MIL 111
−3pp
Q4·47.5
AJ Green misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·MIL 111
−9pp
Q4·52.0
Myles Turner offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·MIL 111
+9pp
Q4·53.0
Alex Sarr blocks Giannis Antetokounmpo 's 2-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 110·MIL 111
−8pp
Q4·1:01
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
WSH 110·MIL 111
+3pp
Q4·1:05
Myles Turner blocks Alex Sarr 's 2-foot dunkBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 110·MIL 111
+8pp
Q4·1:15
Myles Turner makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 110·MIL 111
Q4·1:15
Bub Carrington enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly
·
WSH 110·MIL 110
Q4·1:15
Bucks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·MIL 110
−8pp
Q4·1:15
Myles Turner misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 110·MIL 110
−7pp

Betting line

MIL -10.5·O/U 234.5·WSH +380/MIL -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 114–113. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +10.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Deandre AytonWSH
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

MIL

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.9

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR