NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16CHI

8-27

118134

CHI

16-17

NBAWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesNO wins series 2-1VegasCHI -1.5

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

24.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Tre Jones

G · #30

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 21pp · 3rd Quarter · 58.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	31	12-19	—	7-9	-6	7	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	34	15	6-15	3-11	—	-17	6	5
D. QueenC · #22	25	9	4-7	0-1	1-2	-19	7	4
S. BeyG · #41	34	16	6-16	2-7	2-2	-11	4	3
J. FearsG · #0	23	5	2-8	1-2	—	-18	0	4
Bench
K. LooneyF · #55	18	2	1-5	0-1	—	-5	10	3
Y. MissiC · #21	23	3	1-3	—	1-3	-2	6	0
J. PooleG · #3	26	26	6-14	4-10	10-10	+2	3	2
M. PeavyG · #14	14	6	2-4	1-2	1-1	-5	2	1
J. HawkinsG · #24	14	5	2-7	1-4	—	+1	1	0
Team		118	42-98	12-38	22-27		46	25
DNP: K. Matkovic, D. Jordan, J. Alvarado, T. Alexander

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	26	14	5-11	1-5	3-3	+21	14	1
I. OkoroF · #35	36	24	8-10	2-4	6-8	+31	5	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	27	19	8-17	2-9	1-4	+11	6	2
N. VucevicC · #9	34	17	7-13	2-5	1-2	+6	8	5
T. JonesG · #30	27	20	7-7	1-1	5-6	+16	2	12
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	20	12	4-8	2-4	2-2	0	2	2
D. TerryF · #7	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	-14	2	2
J. CarterG · #5	6	3	1-3	1-2	—	-5	0	0
K. HuerterG · #13	29	13	4-9	2-5	3-5	+12	6	1
A. DosunmuG · #11	25	12	3-11	2-6	4-4	+2	4	6
Team		134	47-92	15-43	25-34		49	33
DNP: Z. Collins, J. Phillips

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

42-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-92

FG %

12-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-43

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO wins series 2-1

Nov 25

CHI130@

NO143

Dec 15

NO114@

CHI104

Jan 1

NO118@

CHI134today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

248.5

High-scoring · +22.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+10250%

CHI-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

248.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat NO 134-118. T. Jones led with 20 PTS, 2 REB, 12 AST. CHI outscored the other side 37-28 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 24 REB · 19 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 35

CHIstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 35 REB · 22 AST

GS 89

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 38.2 · 88-95

+8pp→ 87% WP

Kevon Looney · shooting foul

NO4th Quarter · 11:45 · 93-97

+9pp→ 27% WP

Saddiq Bey · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)

NO3rd Quarter · 58.7 · 88-95

+21pp→ 21% WP

Zion Williamson · enters the game for Yves Missi

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	32	30	28	28	118
CHI	36	31	30	37	134

Period scoring

NO won 0 · CHI won 4

Poole 9

Okoro 11

Williamson 12

Vucevic 6

Poole 12

Jones 7

Williamson 9

Vucevic 11

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

43%

42-98

51%

47-92

32%

12-38

3PT

35%

15-43

81%

22-27

74%

25-34

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·9.7
shot clock turnover
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·31.9
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·36.1
Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point jumper
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·42.7
Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 118·CHI 134
Q4·42.7
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
NO 118·CHI 133
Q4·42.7
Bulls offensive team rebound
NO 118·CHI 133
Q4·42.7
Nikola Vucevic misses free throw 1 of 2
NO 118·CHI 133
Q4·42.7
Jordan Poole shooting foul
·
NO 118·CHI 133
Q4·1:03
Saddiq Bey makes driving layup (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
NO 118·CHI 133
Q4·1:12
Isaac Okoro out of bounds lost ball turnover
NO 116·CHI 133
Q4·1:14
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
NO 116·CHI 133
Q4·1:16
Jordan Poole misses two point shot
·
NO 116·CHI 133
Q4·1:24
Tre Jones makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Patrick Williams assists)
·
NO 116·CHI 133
Q4·1:46
Jordan Poole makes free throw 2 of 2
·
NO 116·CHI 131
Q4·1:46
Jordan Poole makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NO 115·CHI 131
Q4·1:46
Isaac Okoro shooting foul
NO 114·CHI 131
Q4·1:52
Isaac Okoro makes driving layup
NO 114·CHI 131
Q4·2:07
Zion Williamson makes tip shot
·
NO 114·CHI 129
Q4·2:07
Zion Williamson offensive rebound
·
NO 112·CHI 129
Q4·2:11
Trey Murphy III misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
NO 112·CHI 129
Q4·2:27
Patrick Williams makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Tre Jones assists)
·
NO 112·CHI 129
Q4·2:46
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
NO 112·CHI 127
Q4·2:48
Zion Williamson misses driving floating jump shot
·
NO 112·CHI 127
Q4·2:59
Tre Jones makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
NO 112·CHI 127
Q4·3:10
Jordan Poole personal foul
·
NO 112·CHI 125
Q4·3:17
Derik Queen back court turnover
NO 112·CHI 125
Q4·3:23
Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)
·
NO 112·CHI 125
+1pp
Q4·3:42
Zion Williamson makes running layup (Trey Murphy III assists)
· ·
NO 112·CHI 122
−0.6pp

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 248.5·NO +102/CHI -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off New Orleans Pelicans, 134–118.

CHI -1.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 248.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891
Yves MissiNO · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CHI

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.9%

115.5

PPG

114.9

116.3

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR