NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

17-14

139136

MEM

15-18

NBATue, Dec 30FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -1.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

34.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Ja Morant

G · #12

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 43pp · OT · 2.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	39	17	6-17	3-11	2-2	+11	3	3
D. BarlowF · #25	24	12	6-10	—	—	-14	5	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	38	34	11-28	1-6	11-12	-5	10	8
T. MaxeyG · #0	43	34	13-21	4-7	4-5	+2	4	12
V. EdgecombeG · #77	41	25	10-21	5-10	—	-1	6	4
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	26	4	—	—	4-6	+3	6	2
Q. GrimesG · #5	38	11	4-9	2-6	1-2	+18	3	3
J. McCainG · #20	13	2	1-4	0-1	—	+5	4	1
Team		139	51-111	15-42	22-27		41	33
DNP: J. Walker, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	37	15	4-12	2-5	5-6	+9	12	3
C. CowardF · #23	37	28	10-16	2-4	6-6	+14	16	4
J. WellsF · #0	32	14	6-12	2-5	—	-3	4	2
C. KolokoC · #35	20	0	0-2	—	—	+5	3	2
J. MorantG · #12	34	40	16-22	0-2	8-10	+11	2	3
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	36	15	6-11	3-6	—	-10	6	2
GG JacksonF · #45	23	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	-18	1	2
J. LandaleC · #31	18	6	3-7	0-3	—	-11	3	2
C. SpencerG · #24	19	7	2-3	1-1	2-2	-14	1	5
J. SmallG · #10	9	5	2-3	1-1	—	+2	3	3
Team		136	51-92	11-29	23-26		51	28
DNP: K. Caldwell-Pope, V. Williams Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

51-111

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-92

FG %

15-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Dec 31

PHI139@

MEM136today

Mar 10

MEM129@

PHI139

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-12255%

MEM+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MEM 139-136. T. Maxey paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 12 AST. VJ Edgecombe's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

122 PTS · 28 REB · 27 AST

GS 99

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

MEMstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 14 REB · 14 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM4th Quarter · 59.6 · 128-128

+25pp→ 50% WP

Quentin Grimes · enters the game for Adem Bona

PHIOT · 55.5 · 136-134

+24pp→ 71% WP

Ja Morant · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot

PHIOT · 2.2 · 139-136

+43pp→ 96% WP

VJ Edgecombe · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
PHI	34	38	31	25	11	139
MEM	40	32	28	28	8	136

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · MEM won 2

Maxey 12

Morant 7

Embiid 15

Coward 12

Embiid 7

Coward 9

Edgecombe 13

Morant 18

Embiid 4

Morant 6

PHI

MEM

Shooting comparison

PHI

MEM

46%

51-111

55%

51-92

36%

15-42

3PT

38%

11-29

81%

22-27

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
PHI 139·MEM 136
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
PHI 139·MEM 136
−0.5pp
OT·0.3
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
PHI 139·MEM 136
OT·0.3
Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 139·MEM 136
−3pp
OT·1.7
76ers Full timeout
PHI 139·MEM 136
OT·1.7
Grizzlies Full timeout
PHI 139·MEM 136
−0.9pp
OT·2.2
VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 139·MEM 136
−43pp
OT·18.3
76ers Full timeout
PHI 136·MEM 136
OT·18.3
Ja Morant makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 136·MEM 136
+9pp
OT·29.1
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
PHI 136·MEM 134
+3pp
OT·32.2
Joel Embiid misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 136·MEM 134
+9pp
OT·52.6
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 136·MEM 134
−4pp
OT·55.5
Ja Morant misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 136·MEM 134
−24pp
OT·1:06
Paul George personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 136·MEM 134
+20pp
OT·1:18
Joel Embiid makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 136·MEM 134
−13pp
OT·1:33
Joel Embiid defensive rebound
PHI 134·MEM 134
−2pp
OT·1:38
Ja Morant misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 134·MEM 134
−7pp
OT·1:49
Paul George makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
PHI 134·MEM 134
−9pp
OT·2:08
Ja Morant makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 132·MEM 134
+9pp
OT·2:22
Cedric Coward defensive rebound
PHI 132·MEM 132
+2pp
OT·2:25
Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 132·MEM 132
+7pp
OT·2:36
Jaren Jackson Jr. bad pass turnover (VJ Edgecombe steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHI 132·MEM 132
−9pp
OT·2:53
Joel Embiid makes 16-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 132·MEM 132
−8pp
OT·3:15
Ja Morant out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
PHI 130·MEM 132
−7pp
OT·3:31
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup (Joel Embiid assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 130·MEM 132
−6pp
OT·3:49
Jaylen Wells makes 1-foot running dunk (Cedric Coward assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 128·MEM 132
+7pp
OT·3:53
Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
·
PHI 128·MEM 130
+2pp
OT·3:55
VJ Edgecombe misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHI 128·MEM 130
+6pp
OT·4:17
Ja Morant makes driving dunkBIG MOMENT
PHI 128·MEM 130
+8pp
OT·4:22
Joel Embiid bad pass turnover (Ja Morant steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 128·MEM 128
+8pp

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 235.5·PHI -122/MEM +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 139–136 in overtime. Decided by 3.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 39.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Ja MorantPOR · G
DRIVES15.798
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Jaylen BrownPHI
6.1± 2.6high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Jahmai MashackMEM
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

MEM

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

45.6%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.7

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR