Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 24, 2026

FINAL+3TEX

9-21-1

TEX

18-12

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

11,901 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 1.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.2± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high
Carter JensenKC
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.707

OPS

.718

.711

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

KC 1 · TEX 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
TEX	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.304	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Newman3B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KaiserSS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Wilson2B	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Loftin2B	.295	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.214	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. HernandezC	.154	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.270	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Toro1B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RaveRF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	5	13

Player

.286

.280

.160

.333

.244

.304

.194

.111

.286

.244

.235

.226

.244

.295

.214

.154

.188

.270

.286

.212

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	4.0	4	3	2	3	4	82
E. MorganRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. PérezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. StrahmRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	24
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	24
N. MearsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	8.0	8	4	3	4	8	151

Player

4.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.303	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.415	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.327	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.340	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.175	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. CarterCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.333	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
A. ZavalaLF	.480	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. HaggertyLF	.293	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.283	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.308	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. McCutchenDH	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CauleySS	.300	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Wade2B	.444	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. CanhaLF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. HelmanCF	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HauverRF	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.265	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	8	3	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	4.0	2	0	0	0	6	56
J. BeeksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. LatzRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	1	13
L. CurveloRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	11
C. MartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
C. WinnRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	15
C. QuantrillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	4	1	1	5	13	135

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs KC.