
LAA
17-15-1

LAD
20-9-2
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
LAD
.716
OPS
.718
▶.784
.318
OBP
.319
▶.345
4.54
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.27
4.59
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.43
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.11
8.9
K / 9
8.5
9.0
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAA wins
LAA 3 · LAD 0 (by 3)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
LAA · top performer

Yolmer Sanchez
3B
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
LAD · top performer

Alex Call
LF
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 5th Inning
MLB · Box scoreADVANCED
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .214 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .268 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .222 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .350 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .192 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .269 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .154 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .315 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .306 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .231 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .143 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .235 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .286 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .265 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .214 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .281 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 32 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 46 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| 4.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 65 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 133 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .308 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .233 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .368 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .318 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .342 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .449 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .340 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .125 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .362 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .205 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .378 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .448 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .313 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .296 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 30 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 86 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 27 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 49 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 162 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
5
Hits
5
3
Runs
0
0
Errors
0
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
3
Runs
0
5
Hits
5
0
Errors
0
5
TB
7
0
HR
0
4
BB
1
18
K
10
18
LOB
11
Season series
LAD lead series 3-1-1
How it ended
LAA beat LAD 3-0. Y. Sanchez led the way — 1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
LAD vs LAA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSánchez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Peraza to second, d'Arnaud to third.
Candelario · walked, Peraza scored, Mancini to second, Sánchez to third.
Sánchez struck out swinging.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
LAA won 1 · LAD won 0
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Peraza 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 564 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAA 3·LAD 0
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Espinal lined out to center.
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Mitch Farris pitches to Santiago Espinal
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Rushing struck out swinging.
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
−2pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Mitch Farris pitches to Dalton Rushing
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Rojas popped out to shortstop.
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
−3pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Mitch Farris pitches to Miguel Rojas
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Farris relieved Johnson
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Bottom of the 9th inning
LAA 3·LAD 0
Middle of the 9th inning
LAA 3·LAD 0
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Walton grounded out to pitcher.
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Justin Wrobleski pitches to Donovan Walton
·
LAA 3·LAD 0
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Angels went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 3–0.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page