Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

9-20-1

TEX

17-12

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

14,016 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 1.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.2± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high
Carter JensenKC
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.707

OPS

.718

.711

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

KC 2 · TEX 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.316	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.304	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.300	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. MarteRF	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.120	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.294	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.226	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.244	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Drury2B	.179	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.258	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Newman3B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.293	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	6	2	1	1	8

Player

.316

.304

.256

.300

.167

.300

.207

.120

.220

.294

.226

.244

.286

.179

.258

.244

.293

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	5.0	4	2	2	3	5	88
C. EstevezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
A. LangeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	21
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	6	3	3	4	8	139

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.290	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.425	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.313	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.356	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. JansenC	.194	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
T. Wade2B	.429	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.233	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.313	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.308	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CauleySS	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.295	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. McCutchenDH	.421	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HaggertyLF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MacIverC	.150	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	4.0	3	0	0	0	3	51
C. BaumlerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16
J. SborzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
G. CollyerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	23
Team	9.0	6	2	2	1	8	126

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs KC.