
LAA
16-15-1

LAD
20-8-2
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
LAD
.716
OPS
.718
▶.784
.318
OBP
.319
▶.345
4.54
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.27
4.59
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.43
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.11
8.9
K / 9
8.5
9.0
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAA wins
LAA 7 · LAD 7 (tied)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
LAA · top performer

Yoan Moncada
3B
1-1
AB-H
0
R
1
RBI
LAD · top performer

Teoscar Hernandez
LF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 8th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .225 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .282 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .229 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .342 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .192 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| .346 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .239 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .281 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .294 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .240 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .147 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .400 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .290 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .245 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 32 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 66 | |
| 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 31 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 32 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 198 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .273 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .321 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .350 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .389 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .468 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .372 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .347 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .378 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .319 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .302 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .214 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .400 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .429 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 40 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 66 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 26 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 187 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
12
7
Runs
7
1
Errors
1
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
7
Runs
7
8
Hits
12
1
Errors
1
10
TB
22
0
HR
2
12
BB
7
10
K
10
32
LOB
27
Season series
LAD lead series 3-0-1
How it ended
Tied 7-7. Call's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
LAD vs LAA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactE. Morales · struck out swinging.
Call · doubled to left, Rushing scored.
Mancini · grounded out to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
Period scoring
LAA won 2 · LAD won 3
Inn 1
Lowe 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Schanuel 1
Rojas 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Rushing 1
Inn 7
Lowe 1
Inn 8
Rushing 2
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 753 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAA 7·LAD 7
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Tibbs III grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
−9pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Huascar Ynoa pitches to James Tibbs III
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Alfonzo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
−8pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Huascar Ynoa pitches to Eliezer Alfonzo
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Vargas flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
−7pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Huascar Ynoa pitches to Joendry Vargas
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Harlan reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
+7pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Huascar Ynoa pitches to Chase Harlan
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Ynoa relieved Romano
·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Bottom of the 9th inning
LAA 7·LAD 7
Middle of the 9th inning
LAA 7·LAD 7
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Mancini grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
+12pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Chris Campos pitches to Trey Mancini
· ·
LAA 7·LAD 7
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off Los Angeles Angels, 7–7. Decided by 0.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands