Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 23, 2026

FINAL+1COL

DET

8-13-6

COL

15-14-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

9,092 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.3± 3.4medium
Casey MizeDET
5.0± 2.1low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.5± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.3± 0.5high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.3± 1.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

COL

.710

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.47

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

DET 5 · COL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	5
COL	0	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.178	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.333	3	0	2	3	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.279	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.174	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. McGonigleSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.281	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
P. MeadowsCF	.222	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.278	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.242	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.259	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. HadeenSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Anderson2B	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.321	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	5	10	5	0	1	9

Player

.178

.333

.211

.279

.174

.250

.281

.222

.278

.242

.240

.286

.259

.333

.333

.263

.294

.321

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	4.2	7	4	4	1	6	81
K. FinneganRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. VestRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	10
T. HoltonRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	0	10
C. SeaboldRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	10
E. De JesusRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	8.0	14	6	6	1	7	116

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.204	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BeckLF	.296	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.296	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. DoyleCF	.368	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.390	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. Ritter2B	.364	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.358	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
C. CapelLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PerezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	14	6	2	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	4.1	4	4	4	1	3	68
J. HillRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	11
C. DollanderSP	3.2	5	1	1	0	4	43
V. VodnikRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	9.0	10	5	5	1	9	127

Team

DET

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs DET.