Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+3BOS

BOS

13-14

PIT

17-12

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

5,969 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.4± 3.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.3± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 1.6high

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.9± 1.3high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.3high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

PIT

.697

OPS

.718

▶

.755

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.14

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 6 · PIT 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	6
PIT	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RafaelaCF	.345	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.150	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.125	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.300	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.188	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.317	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. NarvaezC	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.345	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. EatonOF	.281	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
B. WardCF	.378	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Anderson3B	1.000	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
S. TuckerLF	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. WhiteSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. FerminOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Winnay3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	6	10	5	0	2	11

Player

.345

.150

.125

.300

.188

.317

.273

.345

.281

.378

1.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	6.0	4	2	2	0	9	78
R. WatsonRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	23
Z. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	25
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	10	126

Player

S. GraySP

6.0

R. WatsonRP

2.0

Z. KellyRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.147	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
H. DavisC	.138	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.261	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.355	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.242	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. RodriguezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Moss1B	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MorelSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. LeeSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. MelendezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. RossC	.533	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		31	3	5	3	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	3.2	3	1	1	1	5	72
L. TomkinsP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	19
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. WoodsRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	25
D. DiamondSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	20
J. La SorsaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	25
Team	9.0	10	6	6	2	11	178

Team

BOS

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs BOS.