New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+2DET

NYY

17-11

DET

8-12-6

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

9,628 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high
Riley GreeneDET
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.9± 2.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.7± 1.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

DET

.749

OPS

◀

.718

.710

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.93

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.79

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

NYY 1 · DET 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
DET	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.381	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CaballeroSS	.208	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Rosario3B	.316	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. GrichukDH	.105	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DominguezRF	.349	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.235	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	.290	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. CoronaCF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. AriasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CobbSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. GomezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Hardman1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. GabrielsonCF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GladneyLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GreenSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	7	1	0	3	6

Player

.381

.208

.316

.105

.349

.235

.194

.290

.143

.000

.000

.000

.160

.200

.167

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	3.2	2	0	0	1	1	62
B. HeadrickRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. YarbroughRP	2.2	5	3	3	2	0	54
A. ChivilliRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
Y. CruzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	8.0	8	3	3	3	3	135

Player

3.2

0.1

2.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.190	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.282	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.229	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.233	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.226	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.294	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
P. MeadowsCF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.294	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. JonesDH	.158	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. CruzCF	.270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PeckSS	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.304	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		29	3	8	3	0	3	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	6.1	7	1	1	2	4	77
D. AndersonRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	11
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
T. HoltonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	6	107

Team

NYY

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs NYY.