San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

18-9-1

TEX

16-11

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,753 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 0.9high
Heliot RamosSF
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Casey SchmittSF
2.0± 2.3high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high
Corey SeagerTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

4.05

4.31

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SF 5 · TEX 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	5
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. GilbertCF	.281	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
W. BrennanLF	.308	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.429	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Koss2B	.375	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. KilenSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Kennedy1B	.345	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. RodríguezC	.351	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
C. Szykowny3B	1.000	3	2	3	1	1	1	0
Z. ZielinskiSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CohenOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	9	5	3	4	4

Player

.281

.333

.308

.429

.375

.000

.345

.351

1.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BivensRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	23
T. BeckRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	15
C. KilianRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	32
M. GageRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
M. FulmerRP	1.1	1	3	2	1	3	37
C. HillierP	0.0	1	3	2	1	0	15
M. JohnsonP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	8
Team	8.0	6	6	4	3	11	144

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.1

0.0

0.2

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. LangfordLF	.444	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.289	4	1	1	4	1	0	2
J. PedersonDH	.171	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.390	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
E. CarterCF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. HigashiokaC	.316	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. MartinezOF	.150	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.115	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
I. MollerC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HardySS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. BlancoCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Taylor3B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.320	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.179	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	6	6	1	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EovaldiSP	4.0	4	0	0	1	0	36
L. CurveloRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	27
J. SborzRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	20
C. BaumlerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
J. LaraRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	18
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	4	112

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SF.