Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL

DET

7-12-6

PHI

10-14-2

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,061 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

PHI

.710

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.38

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · PHI 4 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	4
PHI	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesDH	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. VierlingCF	.295	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.297	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.211	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.250	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BaezSS	.258	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. MeadowsCF	.190	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.179	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
M. Anderson2B	.313	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. CruzCF	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. NidoC	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.346	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	6	4	1	1	10

Player

.167

.278

.295

.297

.211

.250

.237

.258

.190

.179

.313

.207

.167

.270

.217

.294

.346

.212

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	4.0	6	4	3	0	5	73
N. TaggartRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
B. SmithRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
E. De JesusRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	25
R. VanascoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	4	3	0	12	138

Player

4.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.143	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harper1B	.364	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.316	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.306	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.346	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.277	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. PegueroSS	.132	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.219	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.194	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. De La CruzOF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. ShojinagaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.343	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.176	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SpikermanOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	7	4	0	0	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	50
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
T. BanksRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	16
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	6	4	4	1	10	109

Team

DET

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs DET.