St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1STL

STL

15-9-2

NYM

12-10-2

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

6,842 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYM

.717

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.300

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.12

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.226	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Urias3B	.083	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.250	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.175	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. SaggeseLF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. PozoC	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.152	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.294	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Moore2B	.176	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Paige3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. PinoCF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PenaCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. DattaloUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Mendlinger3B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. EncarnacionSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	7	4	2	3	8

Player

.226

.083

.250

.175

.250

.256

.152

.294

.176

.267

.250

.500

.333

.000

1.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	5.0	1	0	0	1	5	54
J. BruihlRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	24
S. BlewettRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
G. MorenoRP	0.2	0	3	3	3	0	26
A. LoveSP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
L. GastelumRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	3	3	3	7	7	144

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.412	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. TaylorCF	.290	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. BichetteSS	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.032	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TauchmanRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.241	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Young1B	.188	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. SengerC	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JimenezSS	.250	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. De OleoSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.150	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. Collins1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Smith2B	.333	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. PacheOF	.464	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
Team		27	3	3	3	0	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MyersRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	27
L. WeaverRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
B. RaleyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	24
B. HudsonRP	1.0	1	3	3	2	1	27
C. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
S. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
J. GeberRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	33
Team	9.0	7	4	4	3	8	147

Team

STL

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs STL.