Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 18, 2026

FINAL+9TEX

8-16-1

312

TEX

15-10

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

8,313 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.707

OPS

.718

.711

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

KC 3 · TEX 12 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
TEX	1	2	0	4	1	0	4	0	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. CollinsLF	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Toro1B	.250	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
C. JensenC	.242	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.222	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.276	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KaiserSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. Wilson2B	.192	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. VazquezSS	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. TreshC	.292	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. TorresCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. HernandezC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Becker1B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SquiresOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ScottLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MartinRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DickersonSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	0	2	13

Player

.095

.250

.242

.222

.276

.207

.241

.192

.269

.292

.000

.111

.167

.250

.250

.125

.250

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	3.1	6	5	5	1	4	75
J. HeasleyRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	2	21
M. StrahmRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	8
B. WayRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	6
C. EstevezRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	28
N. MearsRP	0.1	4	4	4	2	0	30
B. SearsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
Team	8.0	13	12	12	7	10	191

Player

3.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

191

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.292	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. LangfordLF	.455	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.242	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
J. Burger1B	.293	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.395	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.545	3	2	3	2	1	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.294	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
A. McCutchenDH	.533	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
S. HaggertyLF	.344	1	1	0	0	0	3	0
R. Perich3B	.429	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. GarateSS	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. BatistaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Mejia3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CuevaSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. BlancoCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MendezRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. FlamesSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	12	13	11	3	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	4.0	3	1	1	2	6	70
C. MartinRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	15
C. WinnRP	1.1	3	1	1	0	2	28
C. BaumlerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
J. BeeksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
M. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	13	146

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs KC.