Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL

BAL

8-11-3

DET

7-11-5

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

7,249 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.6± 2.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

DET

.718

OPS

◀

.718

.710

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.36

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 1 · DET 1 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CowserRF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.310	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.282	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.464	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. KjerstadLF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. TaverasCF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Ramos3B	.345	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
L. VazquezSS	.308	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
B. TaveraCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. De Los Santos3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. PegueroOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Cuevas2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	1	7	1	1	2	14

Player

.257

.310

.282

.290

.464

.216

.207

.345

.308

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BassittSP	5.1	3	0	0	2	4	89
J. GlasseyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. EspadaRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	0	18
R. LongSP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	18
Team	9.0	4	1	0	5	6	145

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.175	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BaezSS	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.176	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.219	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
D. DinglerC	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.324	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.188	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. ClarkCF	.111	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Jung3B	.303	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. PenningtonUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. GrahamSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SlaterRF	.267	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Santana3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Burt2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. JulksLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	0	0	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. VerlanderSP	4.2	3	1	1	0	6	76
J. PetriP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	9
K. JansenRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	21
B. SmithRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	18
R. VanascoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	20
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	14	159

Team

BAL

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs BAL.