Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+7NYM

TOR

8-12-2

NYM

11-8-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

6,722 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

NYM

.701

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.310

OBP

◀

.319

.300

4.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.16

Team ERA

4.17

4.12

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

TOR 1 · NYM 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
NYM	1	5	2	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.417	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.107	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.304	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		19	1	4	1	0	0	3

Player

.167

.417

.107

.286

.222

.240

.235

.304

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. RogersRP	2.1	7	8	5	0	2	56
P. GallagherRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	17
A. BastardoRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	20
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	5.0	10	8	5	1	4	104

Player

2.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

Team

5.0

104

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.172	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. BichetteSS	.222	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. Polanco1B	.353	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.429	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.381	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.389	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. TauchmanRF	.333	3	2	2	2	0	0	0
T. TaylorCF	.292	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MosqueraLF	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Clifford1B	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		23	8	10	8	1	1	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ThorntonSP	3.2	4	1	1	0	1	60
D. HammerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
B. RaleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	5.1	4	1	1	0	3	80

Team

TOR

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs TOR.