Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+5DET

DET

5-11-4

TOR

8-11-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

6,579 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

TOR

.710

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

4.08

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.16

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 6 · TOR 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	1	6
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.147	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
K. McGonigleSS	.259	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
M. VierlingCF	.355	4	0	2	2	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.179	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. DinglerC	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.263	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BaezSS	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.321	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. CruzCF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Workman3B	.111	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. StevensonOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
MacdonaldUN	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. ValenciaC	.318	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.310	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.348	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
A. Jenkins1B	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.381	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		36	6	11	6	0	6	9

Player

.147

.259

.355

.179

.188

.263

.263

.321

.207

.111

.000

.000

.318

.310

.348

.200

.381

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	4.2	3	1	1	0	7	61
J. LittleRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
B. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
T. RaineyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
S. GuentherRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	19
Team	9.0	5	1	1	4	12	131

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. JimenezDH	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.455	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Tirotta3B	.250	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.393	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. RiveraSS	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. BrooksC	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. SchreckLF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.261	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. ClaseLF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. McAdoo2B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	5	1	1	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	4.2	2	0	0	2	5	65
T. NanceRP	1.1	2	2	2	2	1	27
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	24
J. AlcalaRP	0.1	4	2	2	0	0	24
J. FlemingRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	22
Team	9.0	11	6	6	6	9	162

Team

DET

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs DET.