Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+2SD

MIL

0-4

2-2

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

3,371 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Brandon SproatMIL
5.3± 2.6medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.7high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
2.2± 2.6high
Manny MachadoSD
2.2± 2.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.1± 1.7high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.6high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.735

OPS

◀

.719

.672

.338

OBP

◀

.319

.300

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

3.38

Team ERA

◀

4.20

4.16

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

MIL 5 · SD 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChourioLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. OrtizSS	.250	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.600	2	1	1	2	1	2	0
G. SanchezC	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. LockridgeLF	.571	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
D. Hamilton3B	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. WilliamsSS	.167	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
L. LaraCF	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. LeonardSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Wilken3B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Burke1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RodríguezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BrownCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. O'RaeCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MadeSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Jor. AdamsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Adamczewski2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	9	5	2	7	9

Player

.250

.250

.600

.200

.571

.200

.167

.200

.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. McGeeSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
C. YohoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
D. RomSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
J. WaguespackRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
E. DorchiesP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	--
W. TorresSP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	--
B. JohnsonRP	0.1	2	5	5	3	0	--
J. QuezadaP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	--
Team	8.0	9	7	7	6	6	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LaureanoLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. WagnerDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. AndujarDH	.200	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. France1B	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. JohnsonRF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.571	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.200	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Castanon2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.714	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Sanabria1B	.500	1	1	1	3	0	0	0
E. SalasC	.500	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.833	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.400	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. OrnelasLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	7	9	6	1	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SearsSP	0.2	4	4	4	0	0	--
C. LoewenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	--
J. YeagerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
D.J. SneltenRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
M. CastroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. HawkinsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	9.0	9	5	5	7	9	0

Team

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs MIL.