Recent form
8-2
ATL +1.1 vs PHI +0.6 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
ATL
ATL
84-57
PregameSun, 1:10 PM EDTNBC
PHI
PHI
79-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tyler Mahle
SP · #54
5-10
W-L
4.25
ERA
1.29
WHIP
121
K
125.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOL-6.2 IP1 ER9 K
vsMILW(5-10)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@MINL(4-10)6.2 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Aaron Nola
SP · #27
6-10
W-L
4.93
ERA
1.40
WHIP
157
K
148.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARIW(6-10)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@SEAL(5-10)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsMIAW(5-9)7.0 IP1 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs ATL.
PHI is 6-4 recently; ATL is 8-2.
59.3%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI6–4+0.6
- ATL8–2+1.1
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; ATL has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.6strikeouts · ±2.7
Chris Sale · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.4.
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Jesus Luzardo · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI6.9strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 6.9 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
PHI is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-09-04ATL @ PHI5–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
54.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 118 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.6± 2.7high
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.3± 3.0high
- Zack WheelerPHI6.9± 3.2high
Hits
- Bryce HarperPHI1.5± 1.0high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.3± 0.8high
- Michael Harris IIATL1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Michael Harris IIATL2.3± 2.2high
- Bryce HarperPHI2.3± 1.8high
- Drake BaldwinATL2.1± 1.4high
RBIs
- Edmundo SosaPHI1.1± 1.5high
- Michael Harris IIATL0.8± 1.1high
- Sean MurphyATL0.7± 1.4medium
Earned runs
- AJ Smith-ShawverATL3.5± 1.7low
- Andrew PainterPHI3.1± 2.2high
- Bryce ElderATL2.8± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
PHI
.725
OPS
◀
.719
.713
.312
OBP
.318
.313
4.67
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.49
3.57
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.00
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.28
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelEdge
Sun, Sep 6ATL
Braves
98-68
vs59.3%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
97-76
ATL 40.7%win prob59.3% PHI
PHI 1552 · ATL 1548Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BrewersReds9/6 - 12:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/6 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/6 - 1:35 PM EDT
- CubsMarlins9/6 - 1:40 PM EDT
- TigersGuardians9/6 - 1:40 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/6 - 1:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/6 - 2:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/6 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/6 - 2:35 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/6 - 3:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- YankeesPadres9/6 - 4:10 PM EDT
- TwinsWhite Sox9/6 - 6:20 PM EDT
- NationalsDodgers9/6 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
