Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
BAL
BAL
34-40
PregameThu, 4:10 PM EDT
SEA
SEA
38-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane Baz
SP · #34
4-6
W-L
4.06
ERA
1.39
WHIP
67
K
82.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(4-6)5.0 IP2 ER1 K
@TORL(3-6)5.2 IP1 ER3 K
@BOSW(3-5)7.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs BAL.
SEA is 5-5 recently; BAL is 3-7.
62.7%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA5–5-0.4
- BAL3–7-0.8
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- BAL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; BAL has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2total bases · ±2.4
Pete Alonso · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.8.
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1total bases · ±1.8
Colt Emerson · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.9.
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1total bases · ±2.9
J.P. Crawford · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
SEA is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-08SEA @ BAL6–3
- 2026-06-09SEA @ BAL6–5
- 2026-06-10SEA @ BAL2–7
- 2026-06-11SEA @ BAL5–7
- 2026-06-16BAL @ SEA1–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
60.9%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
60.9%
P(SEA win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.3%
P(SEA win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Bryce MillerSEA6.0± 3.0low
- Bryan WooSEA5.8± 4.0low
- Logan GilbertSEA5.8± 2.5low
Hits
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.2± 1.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 0.8high
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2± 2.4high
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1± 1.8high
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1± 2.9high
RBIs
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.0± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 0.9high
- Colt EmersonSEA0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.4low
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 3.9low
- Trey GibsonBAL2.8± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
SEA
.723
OPS
◀
.717
.712
.322
OBP
◀
.319
.317
4.65
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.24
4.57
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.65
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.19
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Thu, Jun 18BAL
Orioles
38-50
vs62.7%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
45-44
BAL 37.3%win prob62.7% SEA
SEA 1516 · BAL 1463Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
