Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Los Angeles Angels at Athletics
LAA
LAA
30-44
PregameThu, 9:40 PM EDT
ATH
ATH
36-37
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jose Soriano
SP · #59
8-4
W-L
2.79
ERA
1.23
WHIP
92
K
87.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBW(8-4)5.0 IP0 ER5 K
@LADW(7-4)6.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsCOL-4.2 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Gage Jump
RP · #61
2-1
W-L
3.09
ERA
1.11
WHIP
19
K
23.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOL-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
@HOUW(2-1)6.1 IP0 ER3 K
@CHCW(1-1)7.0 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesATH wins series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs LAA.
ATH is 6-4 recently; LAA is 6-4.
57.4%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH6–4-0.6
- LAA6–4+2.0
Situational
- ATH2d rest
- LAA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATH has 0 straight road games; LAA has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Nick KurtzATH2.9total bases · ±3.4
Nick Kurtz · 2.9 TB · last-10 3.5 vs season 2.
- Shea LangeliersATH2.5total bases · ±2.6
Shea Langeliers · 2.5 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 2.2.
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.2total bases · ±3.0
Tyler Soderstrom · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.8.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
ATH is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-18ATH @ LAA1–2
- 2026-05-19ATH @ LAA14–6
- 2026-05-20ATH @ LAA6–5
- 2026-05-21ATH @ LAA3–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.6%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
56.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.64 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATH vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA7.0± 4.0low
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
- Gage JumpATH4.8± 1.7low
Hits
- Jo AdellLAA1.4± 1.5high
- Nick KurtzATH1.2± 1.1high
- Shea LangeliersATH1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Nick KurtzATH2.9± 3.4high
- Shea LangeliersATH2.5± 2.6high
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.2± 3.0high
RBIs
- Nick KurtzATH1.2± 1.6high
- Tyler SoderstromATH0.8± 1.3high
- Denzer GuzmanLAA0.8± 1.6low
Earned runs
- Luis MoralesATH5.0± 0.3low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.2± 1.8medium
- Reid DetmersLAA2.6± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
ATH
.714
OPS
.717
▶.751
.319
OBP
.319
▶.331
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.60
4.55
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.81
1.42
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.44
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelLean
Thu, Jun 18LAA
Angels
32-48
vs57.3%ATH
ATH★
Athletics
36-44
LAA 42.7%win prob57.3% ATH
ATH 1471 · LAA 1447Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
