Recent form
7-3
STL +2.1 vs KC -0.5 margin
STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
STL
STL
40-31
PregameThu, 7:40 PM EDT
KC
KC
29-45
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketKauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Matthew Liberatore
SP · #32
3-3
W-L
4.71
ERA
1.50
WHIP
65
K
70.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIN-4.1 IP4 ER4 K
vsCIN-4.1 IP3 ER4 K
vsCHCW(3-3)5.1 IP0 ER4 K
Home starter
Noah Cameron
SP · #65
3-4
W-L
4.11
ERA
1.21
WHIP
64
K
70.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsHOU-4.1 IP4 ER1 K
@MINW(3-4)6.0 IP0 ER7 K
@CIN-7.0 IP1 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob58% / 42%
LeanAway · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
KC vs STL.
KC is 4-6 recently; STL is 7-3.
41.9%
model · KC win prob
Recent form
- KC4–6-0.5
- STL7–3+2.1
Situational
- KC2d rest
- STL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. KC has 2 straight road games; STL has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.8total bases · ±1.7
Alec Burleson · 2.8 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 2.
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.6total bases · ±1.8
Jordan Walker · 2.6 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.2.
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.0total bases · ±2.8
Jac Caglianone · 2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.5.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
KC is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-15KC @ STL4–5
- 2026-05-16KC @ STL2–4
- 2026-05-17KC @ STL2–0
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
41.7%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
43.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.7%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.2%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.06 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
KC vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 78 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dustin MaySTL5.7± 3.6low
- Noah CameronKC5.0± 3.0low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.0± 3.2low
Hits
- Kameron MisnerKC1.5± 0.8low
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.4± 0.8high
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.3± 1.4high
Total bases
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.8± 1.7high
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.6± 1.8high
- Blaze JordanSTL2.5± 4.2low
RBIs
- Blaze JordanSTL1.0± 1.9low
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.0± 1.3high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.9± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Michael WachaKC2.9± 2.7low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.7± 2.2low
- Noah CameronKC2.5± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
KC
.721
OPS
◀
.717
.695
.324
OBP
◀
.319
.317
4.58
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.99
4.06
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.51
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.38
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.0
The One modelEdge
Thu, Jun 18STL★
Cardinals
44-32
vs58.1%STL
KC
Royals
31-47
STL 58.1%win prob41.9% KC
STL 1528 · KC 1455Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
