MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

CLE

39-34

PregameThu, 2:10 PM EDT

MIL

44-26

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

MIL +2.4 vs CLE -1.1 margin

MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Parker Messick

SP · #77

6-3

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.09

WHIP

80.2

Last 3 starts

vsNYYL(6-3)5.2 IP4 ER4 K

@TEXL(6-2)5.2 IP3 ER4 K

vsBOS-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Shane Drohan

RP · #55

3-2

W-L

3.59

ERA

1.17

WHIP

42.2

Last 3 starts

vsPHIL(3-2)5.0 IP4 ER7 K

@COLW(3-1)6.1 IP3 ER4 K

vsSF-4.0 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob34% / 66%

LeanHome · 16pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesMIL leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

MIL vs CLE.

MIL is 7-3 recently; CLE is 3-7.

65.5%

model · MIL win prob

Recent form

MIL7–3+2.4
CLE3–7-1.1

Situational

MIL2d rest
CLE2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; CLE has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.5total bases · ±3.4
Jackson Chourio · 3.5 TB · last-10 4.2 vs season 2.5.
Jake BauersMIL
2.1total bases · ±2.3
Jake Bauers · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
Brice TurangMIL
1.9total bases · ±2.5
Brice Turang · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.7.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

MIL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-16CLE @ MIL1–2

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
63.1%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.1%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.7± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 0.8high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.5± 3.4high
Jake BauersMIL
2.1± 2.3high
Brice TurangMIL
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

MIL

.685

OPS

.717

▶

.733

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.339

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.31

3.73

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

The One model★ Lock

Thu, Jun 18

CLE

Guardians

44-41

vs65.6%MIL

MIL★

Brewers

49-27

CLE 34.4%win prob65.6% MIL

MIL 1584 · CLE 1514Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers

The matchup, end-to-end.

MIL vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league