Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR
TOR
35-38
PregameThu, 1:35 PM EDT
BOS
BOS
29-41
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Trey Yesavage
SP · #39
3-3
W-L
3.78
ERA
1.26
WHIP
47
K
47.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYYW(3-3)5.0 IP5 ER3 K
vsBALL(2-3)5.2 IP6 ER5 K
@BAL-5.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Sonny Gray
SP · #54
8-1
W-L
3.03
ERA
1.20
WHIP
51
K
62.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXW(8-1)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@NYYW(7-1)6.1 IP3 ER3 K
@CLEW(6-1)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 53%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesTOR leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs TOR.
BOS is 3-7 recently; TOR is 5-5.
52.5%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS3–7-0.9
- TOR5–5-1.0
Situational
- BOS2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; TOR has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.9total bases · ±3.0
Willson Contreras · 2.9 TB · last-10 3.5 vs season 2.
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.0total bases · ±2.5
Ceddanne Rafaela · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.7.
- Ernie ClementTOR2.0total bases · ±2.3
Ernie Clement · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.8.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
BOS is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-16TOR @ BOS6–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.8%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
53.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.9low
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 3.9low
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.7± 3.7low
Hits
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.3± 1.2high
- Ernie ClementTOR1.3± 0.9high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.2high
Total bases
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.9± 3.0high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.0± 2.5high
- Ernie ClementTOR2.0± 2.3high
RBIs
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.9± 1.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.7± 1.3high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR4.2± 4.0low
- Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR3.2± 3.3low
- Jake BennettBOS3.0± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
BOS
.704
OPS
.717
.697
.314
OBP
.319
.314
4.10
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.99
4.08
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.94
1.28
WHIP
1.31
1.29
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelTossup
Thu, Jun 18TOR
Blue Jays
34-51
vs52.5%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
29-51
TOR 47.5%win prob52.5% BOS
BOS 1464 · TOR 1465Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
