Recent form
5-5
SF +1.0 vs ATL -0.3 margin
SF brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
SF
SF
29-43
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDT
ATL
ATL
46-25
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Landen Roupp
SP · #65
5-7
W-L
4.24
ERA
1.29
WHIP
82
K
74.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHCL(5-7)4.2 IP4 ER5 K
@CHC-5.2 IP1 ER5 K
@MILL(5-6)4.0 IP8 ER4 K
Home starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
5-3
W-L
2.90
ERA
1.05
WHIP
51
K
62.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYMW(5-3)5.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsPITW(4-3)5.0 IP3 ER5 K
@CINW(3-3)5.0 IP2 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob34% / 66%
LeanHome · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs SF.
ATL is 5-5 recently; SF is 5-5.
65.7%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL5–5-0.3
- SF5–5+1.0
Situational
- ATL4d rest
- SF4d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 5 straight road games; SF has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Matt ChapmanSF2.6total bases · ±3.6
Matt Chapman · 2.6 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 1.5.
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.4total bases · ±2.1
Bryce Eldridge · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.8.
- Drake BaldwinATL2.2total bases · ±2.0
Drake Baldwin · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 2.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.8%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
63.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.8%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.18 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 74 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.4± 2.1low
- Landen RouppSF5.8± 2.1low
- Logan WebbSF5.3± 1.8low
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.6± 1.4high
- Bryce EldridgeSF1.4± 1.0high
- Luis ArraezSF1.4± 0.7high
Total bases
- Matt ChapmanSF2.6± 3.6high
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.4± 2.1high
- Drake BaldwinATL2.2± 2.0high
RBIs
- Matt ChapmanSF1.3± 2.4high
- Drake BaldwinATL0.8± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Adrian HouserSF3.1± 2.7low
- Robbie RaySF2.8± 3.5low
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
ATL
.725
OPS
.717
▶.744
.309
OBP
.319
▶.320
4.11
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.06
4.52
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.29
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.18
8.1
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
The One model★ Lock
Thu, Jun 18SF
Giants
38-42
vs65.7%ATL
ATL★
Braves
53-28
SF 34.3%win prob65.7% ATL
ATL 1565 · SF 1495Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
