Recent form
6-4
PHI +1.0 vs NYM -1.7 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM
NYM
32-41
PregameThu, 6:40 PM EDT
PHI
PHI
40-33
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Manaea
RP · #59
1-2
W-L
4.78
ERA
1.35
WHIP
51
K
49.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLL(1-2)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@SDW(1-1)4.0 IP2 ER3 K
@SEA-5.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Aaron Nola
SP · #27
3-4
W-L
5.86
ERA
1.47
WHIP
71
K
70.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIL-4.2 IP3 ER3 K
vsCHW-4.1 IP5 ER4 K
vsSD-5.0 IP2 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob34% / 66%
LeanHome · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/18
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs NYM.
PHI is 6-4 recently; NYM is 4-6.
65.9%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI6–4+1.0
- NYM4–6-1.7
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; NYM has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5total bases · ±2.5
Bo Bichette · 2.5 TB · last-10 3.1 vs season 1.5.
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1total bases · ±2.3
Brandon Marsh · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
- Juan SotoNYM1.8total bases · ±2.3
Juan Soto · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
63.4%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.1%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.54 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 92 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.4medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.7low
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI1.2± 1.3high
- Brandon MarshPHI1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5± 2.5high
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1± 2.3high
- Juan SotoNYM1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.1high
- Brandon MarshPHI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 3.2low
- Andrew PainterPHI3.7± 2.9low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.5± 2.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
PHI
.665
OPS
.717
▶.686
.296
OBP
.319
.297
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.11
3.99
Team ERA
4.17
4.02
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.30
9.1
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One model★ Lock
Thu, Jun 18NYM
Mets
35-44
vs66.0%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
49-40
NYM 34.0%win prob66.0% PHI
PHI 1549 · NYM 1477Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
