MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

41-28

PregameTue, 10:10 PM EDT

LAD

46-27

ATS/LAD -1.5O/U/8ML/LAD-149

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.66

D. Rasmussen

6-2 · 2.71 ERA

J. Wrobleski

7-2 · 2.95 ERA

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Starter edge

2.71 ERA

Drew Rasmussen vs Justin Wrobleski - 2.95 ERA

Rasmussen owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving TB cleaner opening script tonight.

Recent form

6-4

LAD +0.9 vs TB +0.2 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

LAD no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.2% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Drew Rasmussen

SP · #57

6-2

W-L

2.71

ERA

0.88

WHIP

73.0

Last 3 starts

vsBOSW(6-2)7.0 IP0 ER13 K

@MIAW(5-2)7.0 IP0 ER9 K

vsLAAL(4-2)4.0 IP5 ER4 K

Home starter

Justin Wrobleski

SP · #70

7-2

W-L

2.95

ERA

1.05

WHIP

73.1

Last 3 starts

@PIT-4.2 IP4 ER1 K

@ARI-6.0 IP0 ER4 K

vsPHIW(7-2)7.0 IP1 ER9 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+124 / -149

Model edge

Win prob39% / 61%

LeanHome · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesLAD lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-149Bet LAD ML↗-149Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

LAD

1.S. OhtaniDH
2.A. PagesCF
3.F. Freeman1B
4.M. BettsSS
5.M. Muncy3B
6.K. TuckerRF
7.R. WardLF
8.A. Freeland2B
9.C. RobinsonC

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs TB.

LAD is 6-4 recently; TB is 5-5.

60.9%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

LAD6–4+0.9
TB5–5+0.2

Situational

LAD1d restB2B
TB1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; TB has 4.

Model angle

+3.6ppon LAD

LAD's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.

▲Venue split+2.7pp
▲Travel burden+2.0pp
▼Model confidence-1.4pp

Players to watch

Griffin JaxTB
2.9strikeouts · ±1.6
Griffin Jax · 2.9 K · last-10 3.4 vs season 2.1.
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3total bases · ±2.0
Shohei Ohtani · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.1.
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9total bases · ±1.7
Freddie Freeman · 1.9 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

LAD is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-15TB @ LAD3–4

Line move

open -149→-149flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.4%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LAD.

LAD's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+3.6

pp edge · LAD

+0.11

CLV pp

1.6u · medium

on LAD

62.4%

±6.3pp band

1.59u medium — +2.6pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.1pp

+1.5pp post-cal

Kelly

6.4%

1.6% sized

Decimal

1.67

+2.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.6pp · LAD over TB

▲
Venue split70% conf
LAD's venue form is 61.8pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.7pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
TB is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+2.0pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
LAD sits near the model-market noise floor.
-1.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
LAD has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.4pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Line barely moved

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.6pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

no live price

LAD

★ best

-149DraftKings

edge +3.6pp · implied 57.3%

Book	TB	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+124	-149★	+3.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high
Max MuncyLAD
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.720

OPS

.717

▶

.787

.336

OBP

.319

▶

.345

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

3.96

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.36

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

Tue, Jun 16

Rays

54-28

vs60.9%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

52-32

TB 39.1%win prob60.9% LAD

LAD 1589 · TB 1545Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Player
J. WrobleskiSP	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take LAD on the model side.

Top of the order, top of mind.

LAD vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LAD.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Why we like LAD.

Player
S. OhtaniDH	.298	252	75	41	14	71
A. PagesCF	.269	279	75	56	15	61
F. Freeman1B	.275	265	73	38	11	51
M. BettsSS	.205	151	31	18	7	20
M. Muncy3B	.269	219	59	28	16	61
K. TuckerRF	.239	255	61	39	6	61
R. WardLF	.250	40	10	11	3	13
A. Freeland2B	.230	139	32	16	3	44
C. RobinsonC	.000	2	0	0	0	0
Team		--	--	--	--	--

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take LAD on the model side.

Top of the order, top of mind.

LAD vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LAD.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Why we like LAD.