MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Mullins flied out to center. → win prob 84→92% LAD

TOP 9TH+1LAD

41-27

LAD

45-27

MLB · At bat

Top 91-12 outs

Pitcher· LAD

T. Scott

0.2 IP, 1 K, 0 ER

Batter· TB

Y. Diaz

0-4, 1 K

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

59.8%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 59.7% LAD

TB 3 · 4 LAD

LAD +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTBTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+8pp→ 26% WP
Vilade · singled to right.
SwingLADBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 84% WP
Rojas · homered to left center (380 feet).
SwingLADTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+11pp→ 68% WP
Mullins · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Slater out at second.
Lead flipLADBottom 2nd Inning · 3-3
+23pp→ 65% WP
Tucker · homered to right center (384 feet), Betts scored and Muncy scored.
Lead flipTBTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 56% WP
Vilade · homered to left (422 feet), Caminero scored.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.90

N. Martinez

6-2 · 2.43 ERA

E. Lauer

2-5 · 5.47 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

LAD no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

98.5%

+39.7ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

±2.9

pp · next play

low · 8/100

1-point game · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

no live price

LAD

no live price

Book	TB	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+125	-164	+1.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Dalton RushingLAD
1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.6± 1.9high
Yandy DiazTB
1.9± 1.6high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.9± 0.9high
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.721

OPS

.717

▶

.787

.336

OBP

.319

▶

.345

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

3.96

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

● Live

Rays

54-27

vs59.7%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

51-32

TB 40.3%win prob59.7% LAD

LAD 1586 · TB 1548Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.315	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.276	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.275	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.299	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.230	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.198	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. FortesC	.265	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. WallsSS	.214	3	0	0	1	0	0	3
C. SimpsonLF	.266	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	8	3	1	3	7

Player

.315

.276

.275

.299

.255

.230

.198

.265

.214

.266

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	5.1	5	3	3	1	6	96
C. BooserRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	13
S. MatzSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	20
Team	8.0	7	4	4	2	9	129

Player

N. MartinezSP

5.1

C. BooserRP

0.2

S. MatzSP

2.0

Team

8.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. PagesCF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.275	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. BettsSS	.205	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.269	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.239	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
R. WardLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. CallLF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.267	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		31	4	7	4	2	2	9