MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

STL

38-30

MIN

32-40

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

23,408 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

MIN no-vig %

51.0%

open 50.4% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.9%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
46.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.5%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.7%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.32

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-109

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.3pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

-117DraftKings

edge +5.3pp · implied 51.5%

MIN

no live price

Book	STL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-117★	-103	+5.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 0.8high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Blaze JordanSTL
1.3± 1.3low

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6± 1.8high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.9low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Josh BellMIN
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIN

.722

OPS

.717

.715

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.60

Runs / G

4.50

4.62

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.82

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 9 · MIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	2	2	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	9
MIN	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.228	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
I. HerreraDH	.270	3	2	2	3	2	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.298	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. VelazquezOF	.346	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.288	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan1B	.500	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
J. FerminLF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.230	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. NootbaarLF	.250	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Wetherholt2B	.252	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	13	9	4	3	5

Player

.228

.270

.298

.346

.288

.500

.269

.230

.250

.250

.252

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	4.1	5	4	4	1	4	70
M. SvansonRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	15
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
C. RoycroftRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	14
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	4
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	1	1	3	1	31
Team	9.0	7	6	6	5	8	143

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.241	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. BuxtonCF	.269	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.246	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.208	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
B. LeeSS	.240	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
O. ArciaSS	.271	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.222	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.244	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. JacksonC	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.213	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.249	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Gray3B	.258	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.228	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		32	6	7	6	3	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	6.0	7	4	4	2	2	98
J. LawrenceRP	0.2	4	4	4	0	2	24
T. AdamsRP	2.1	2	1	1	1	1	37
Team	9.0	13	9	9	3	5	159

Team

STL

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIN vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.