MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LAD

LAD

44-25

PIT

35-34

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

30,660 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 8.5 · +1.0

PIT no-vig %

40.9%

open 42.8% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
37.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
34.9%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.1%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-149

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high
Max MuncyLAD
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

PIT

.787

OPS

◀

.717

.736

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.334

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.95

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 8 · PIT 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	1	0	8
PIT	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.305	2	2	2	1	1	2	0
A. PagesCF	.282	6	2	2	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.284	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. BettsSS	.185	5	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.266	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. TuckerRF	.237	5	1	1	2	0	0	3
R. WardLF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.277	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
A. Freeland2B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.266	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. RojasSS	.253	1	0	0	2	0	0	0
Team		37	8	10	6	1	8	7

Player

.305

.282

.284

.185

.266

.237

.242

.277

.237

.250

.266

.253

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WrobleskiSP	4.2	6	4	4	2	1	80
W. KleinRP	1.0	3	0	0	1	2	22
A. VesiaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
J. DreyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
E. HenriquezRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	15
T. ScottRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	18
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	10	150

Player

4.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Gonzales3B	.302	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.249	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.265	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.193	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.291	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
E. ValdezOF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.295	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. Flores Jr.C	.667	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
J. TrioloSS	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.284	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. CallihanLF	.385	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		38	6	12	6	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	4.0	7	5	5	4	3	98
Y. RamirezRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	35
E. SiskRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	31
B. BidoisRP	1.1	1	1	0	1	2	29
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	10	8	7	8	7	209

Team

LAD

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.