MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Chapman homered to center (382 feet), Arraez scored, Adames scored and Eldridge scored. → win prob 74→94% SF

BOT 5TH+9SF

25-38

CHC

33-30

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 52-00 outs

Pitcher· SF

R. Ray

4.0 IP, 4 K, 0 ER

Batter· CHC

N. Hoerner

0-2

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

76.7%

SF wins · current

Pre-game: 54.2% CHC

SF 9 · 0 CHC

SF +9

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCHC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSFTop 4th Inning · 6-0
+20pp→ 94% WP
Chapman · homered to center (382 feet), Arraez scored, Adames scored and Eldridge scored.
Lead flipSFTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 54% WP
Adames · homered to left (427 feet), Arraez scored.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.45

R. Ray

3-6 · 4.45 ERA

E. Cabrera

3-2 · 4.00 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

CHC no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
54.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-53.7ppvs pre-game · SF favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+45.8pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +45.8pp · implied 0.0%

CHC

no live price

Book	SF	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	—★	+1980	+45.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CHC vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.5± 4.4low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.8± 1.6high
Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 0.9high
Ian HappCHC
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ian HappCHC
2.7± 2.6high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.3± 2.1high
Willy AdamesSF
2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
1.1± 1.8high
Michael BuschCHC
0.7± 0.8high
Eric HaaseSF
0.7± 1.8low

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.9low
Adrian HouserSF
3.2± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

Giants

31-37

vs54.2%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

34-36

SF 45.8%win prob54.2% CHC

CHC 1498 · SF 1489Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Schmitt★DH	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	1	3.0
SPRINT2872
R. Devers★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.0
L. Arraez★2B	2-3	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	48.6
SPRINT26.632
W. Adames★SS	1-1	1	3	1	2	1	2	0	43.9
SPRINT27.457
J. Lee★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	4.4
B. Eldridge★DH	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	22.6
M. Chapman★3B	1-2	2	1	1	5	1	0	1	19.0
SPRINT28.175
D. Susac★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5
D. Gilbert★CF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	3.1
Team	9-23	23	9	9	9	3	2	7	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Schmitt★DH

1-3

3.0

R. Devers★1B

1-3

1.0

L. Arraez★2B

2-3

48.6

W. Adames★SS

1-1

43.9

J. Lee★RF

1-3

4.4

B. Eldridge★DH

1-3

22.6

M. Chapman★3B

1-2

19.0

D. Susac★C

0-3

0.5

D. Gilbert★CF

1-2

3.1

Team

9-23

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
R. Ray★SP	4.0	1	0	0	5	4	0	17.9
Team	4.0	1	0	0	5	4	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

R. Ray★SP

4.0

17.9

Team

4.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
N. Hoerner★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3
SPRINT28.278
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	5.6
SPRINT29.294
A. Bregman★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.1
SPRINT25.818
S. Suzuki★RF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.0
SPRINT27.457
I. Happ★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	10.2
C. Kelly★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	5.3
SPRINT25.716
M. Busch★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	3.8
M. Amaya★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.8
D. Swanson★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.0
Team	1-13	13	0	1	0	0	5	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player