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FINAL+1KC

DET

18-21

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

29,374 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.3± 3.4low
Seth LugoKC
5.3± 2.4low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Colt KeithDET
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.1± 2.2high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.9± 2.5high
Elias DiazKC
1.8± 2.4low

RBIs

Nick LoftinKC
0.9± 2.0low
Matt VierlingDET
0.8± 0.9high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.6± 2.9low
Keider MonteroDET
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

DET 3 · KC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
KC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBFri, May 8FinalSeriesKC leads series 1-0VegasKC -149

Recap · MLB

ansas City Royals held off Detroit Tigers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (KC won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

Riley Greene

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

RBI

KC · top performer

Nick Loftin

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

DET

18-21

Final

18-21

DET

18-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Vierling★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigle★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. Jones★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Dingler★C	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. Greene★LF	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
W. Perez★RF	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. Torkelson★1B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. Lee★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Short★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
K. CarpenterRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	8-34	34	3	8	2	0	5	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Montero★SP	6.0	3	1	1	1	4	0
T. HoltonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. HurterRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	0

Team	8.2	8	4	4	3	6	0

18-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Garcia★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Perez★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Jensen★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caglianone★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
I. Collins★LF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. Massey★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Isbel★CF	2-4	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin3B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0

Team	8-33	33	4	8	4	0	3	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Bubic★SP	5.2	4	3	3	4	5	0
N. MearsRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. AvilaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0
Team	9.0	8	3	3	5	6	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

KC leads series 1-0

May 8

DET3@

KC4today

May 9

DET@

KCupcoming

May 10

DET@

KCupcoming

Season series

DET leads series 3-1

Apr 14

KC1@

DET2

Apr 15

KC1@

DET2

Apr 16

KC9@

DET10

May 8

DET3@

KC4today

May 9

DET@

KCupcoming

May 10

DET@

KCupcoming

Jul 23

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 24

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 25

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 26

KC@

DETupcoming

Aug 22

DET@

KCupcoming

Aug 22

DET@

KCupcoming

Aug 23

DET@

KCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+12345%

KC-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 40pp · Bottom 9th Inning

DET

R. Greene

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

K. Montero

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

N. Loftin

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Bubic

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

KC beat DET 4-3. Isbel's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Win probability

KC vs DET

Score progression

0 lead changes

DET3

KC4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

KCBottom 8th Inning · 3-2

+32pp→ 59% WP

Isbel · singled to right, Massey scored on error, Isbel safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Pérez, Isbel safe at third on error.

DETTop 9th Inning · 3-3

+27pp→ 66% WP

McKinstry · doubled to right.

KCBottom 9th Inning · 3-4

+40pp→ 100% WP

Isbel · singled to left, Loftin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
KC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4

Period scoring

DET won 1 · KC won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Torkelson 1

Collins 1

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Torkelson 1

Inn 7

Inn 8

Isbel 1

Inn 9

Isbel 1

DET

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period

event

player

B9
·
DET 3·KC 4
B9
Isbel singled to left, Loftin scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
DET 3·KC 4
+40pp
B9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
DET 3·KC 4
B9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
DET 3·KC 4
B9
Brant Hurter pitches to Kyle Isbel
· ·
DET 3·KC 4
B9
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Loftin doubled to center.BIG MOMENT
·
DET 3·KC 3
+7pp
B9
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Brant Hurter pitches to Nick Loftin
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Loftin hit for Massey
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Collins struck out looking.
·
DET 3·KC 3
−5pp
B9
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Brant Hurter pitches to Isaac Collins
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Caglianone lined out to right.BIG MOMENT
·
DET 3·KC 3
−6pp
B9
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Brant Hurter pitches to Jac Caglianone
·
DET 3·KC 3
B9
Pérez in center field.
·
DET 3·KC 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 8.5·DET +123/KC -149

DraftKings · via ESPN