St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 21, 2026

FINAL+2STL

STL

14-9

MIA

11-13

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

8,412 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
53.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.7%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.9± 1.7medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 3.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.5high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIA

.728

OPS

◀

.718

.708

.328

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.63

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.29

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.07

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · MIA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	5
MIA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.229	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
I. HerreraDH	.229	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.278	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.292	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.203	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.257	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.231	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
P. PagesC	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		36	5	10	5	1	2	12

Player

.229

.229

.278

.292

.203

.257

.231

.196

.207

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	5.1	6	1	1	1	5	97
J. BruihlRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	27
R. StanekRP	0.2	1	2	2	3	2	32
G. SorianoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	9	179

Player

5.1

1.2

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

179

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.176	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
K. StowersLF	.300	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. LopezSS	.318	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.348	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
L. HicksC	.324	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. RamirezC	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.224	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Pauley3B	.173	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. SlaterRF	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.320	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.154	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	4.2	8	5	5	1	7	90
J. KingRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	19
T. PhillipsRP	3.0	2	0	0	1	3	40
Team	9.0	10	5	5	2	12	149

Team

STL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.