Matchup orbital

STL

5

STL

STL

14-9

Final

Win prob

46/54

AWAY · HOME

MIA

3

MIA

MIA

11-13

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · MIA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL1012100005
MIA1000000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Tue, Apr 21Final
STL

STL14-9

STL

@

11-13MIA

MIA

MIA
SeriesMIA wins series 2-1VegasMIA -122

Recap · MLB

t. Louis Cardinals went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 5–3.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FINALFinal
STL
STLWIN14-95
FINAL
MIA
MIA11-133

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Apr 20STLSTL3@MIAMIA5
Apr 21STLSTL5@MIAMIA3today
Apr 22STLSTL1@MIAMIA4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 20STLSTL3@MIAMIA5
Apr 21STLSTL5@MIAMIA3today
Apr 22STLSTL1@MIAMIA4
Jun 27MIAMIA@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 27MIAMIA@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 28MIAMIA@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+10250%
MIAMIA-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 3 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 4th Inning

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat MIA 5-3. Church's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

STL5
MIA3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 60% WP

Marsee · homered to right (351 feet).

STLTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+18pp→ 80% WP

Church · homered to right (370 feet), Winn scored.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 5-3
+11pp→ 21% WP

Marsee · reached on infield single to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL1012100005
MIA1000000203

Period scoring

STL won 3 · MIA won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Burleson 1

Marsee 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Burleson 1

2
0

Inn 4

Church 2

1
0

Inn 5

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 9

STL
MIA

Game flow · key plays

  1. B9

    Marsee reached on infield single to second.

    STL 5·MIA 3

    +11pp

  2. B8

    Hernández singled to right, Edwards scored and Hicks scored, Sanoja to third.

    STL 5·MIA 3

    +10pp

  3. T4

    Church homered to right (370 feet), Winn scored.

    STL 4·MIA 1

    −18pp

  4. B3

    Lopez lined out to left.

    STL 2·MIA 1

    −12pp

  5. B3

    Norby singled to left.

    STL 2·MIA 1

    +10pp

  6. B1

    Marsee homered to right (351 feet).

    STL 1·MIA 1

    +10pp

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

5

Runs

3

Player box score

STL

STL

14-9

5
J. Wetherholt

J. Wetherholt★

2B

OPS

0.650

H-AB

1-4

R

2

RBI

0

HR

0

I. Herrera

I. Herrera★

C

OPS

0.800

H-AB

2-5

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Burleson

A. Burleson★

1B

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

1

RBI

2

HR

0

J. Walker

J. Walker★

RF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

N. Gorman

N. Gorman★

3B

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

M. Winn

M. Winn★

SS

OPS

1.000

H-AB

2-4

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

N. Church

N. Church★

LF

OPS

1.750

H-AB

2-4

R

1

RBI

2

HR

1

P. Pages

P. Pages★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

V. Scott II

V. Scott II★

CF

OPS

0.250

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

10-36

R

5

RBI

5

HR

1

D. May

D. May★

SP

IP

5.1

H

6

ER

1

K

5

J. Bruihl

J. Bruihl

RP

IP

1.2

H

0

ER

0

K

0

R. Stanek

R. Stanek

RP

IP

0.2

H

1

ER

2

K

2

G. Soriano

G. Soriano

RP

IP

0.1

H

0

ER

0

K

1

R. O'Brien

R. O'Brien

RP

IP

1.0

H

1

ER

0

K

1

Team total

IP

9.0

H

8

ER

3

K

9

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 8.5·STL +102/MIA -122

DraftKings · via ESPN