New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 24, 2026

FINAL+8NYY

NYY

17-9

124

HOU

10-17

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

37,852 attended

Line movement

48 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
41.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.9%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
7.0± 2.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.9high
Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

HOU

.768

OPS

◀

.718

.727

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.8

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 12 · HOU 4 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	3	1	0	1	0	3	4	0	0	12
HOU	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.162	2	1	0	1	0	2	0
A. JudgeRF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
C. BellingerLF	.267	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.316	5	3	2	2	1	0	1
G. StantonDH	.256	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.213	4	3	3	4	1	1	1
J.C. EscarraC	.208	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.151	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.261	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.269	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.194	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	12	13	11	4	6	4

Player

.162

.237

.267

.316

.256

.213

.208

.151

.261

.269

.194

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	6.0	7	2	2	1	6	95
F. CruzRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	3	20
R. YarbroughRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	37
Team	9.0	11	4	4	2	11	152

Player

W. WarrenSP

6.0

F. CruzRP

1.0

R. YarbroughRP

2.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CorreaSS	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.357	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.267	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.274	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.231	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
D. HarrisLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
Y. DiazC	.213	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ShewmakeSS	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. VazquezC	.351	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	11	4	2	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. McCullers Jr.SP	5.0	6	7	5	4	3	92
C. GordonSP	2.0	7	5	5	2	0	53
J. MurrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	13	12	10	6	4	172

Team

NYY

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.