Matchup orbital

12
NYY
NYY
17-9
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

4
HOU
HOU
10-17
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYY wins
NYY 12 · HOU 4 (by 8)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked NYY +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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NYY17-9
NYY
10-17HOU
HOU

Recap · MLB
ew York Yankees went into Houston Astros and beat them, 12–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 7.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
NYY win series 2-1
NYY12@
HOU4today
NYY8@
HOU3
NYY4@
HOU7Season series
NYY lead series 1-0
NYY12@
HOU4today
NYY8@
HOU3
NYY4@
HOU7
HOU@
NYYupcoming
HOU@
NYYupcoming
HOU@
NYYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NYY-15661%
HOU+12944%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 1st Inning
NYY
J. Chisholm Jr.
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

W. Warren
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB
HOU
B. Shewmake
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

L. McCullers Jr.
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 4 BB
How it ended
NYY beat HOU 12-4.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
HOU vs NYY
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactChisholm Jr. · singled to right, Bellinger scored and Rice scored.
McMahon · homered to left (336 feet).
Chisholm Jr. · homered to right (393 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Period scoring
NYY won 3 · HOU won 0
Inn 1
Jr. 2
Inn 2
McMahon 1
Diaz 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Jr. 1
Smith 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Stanton 1
Inn 7
Rice 1
Diaz 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
Chisholm Jr. homered to right (393 feet).
NYY 5·HOU 1
−9pp
Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Smith to second.
NYY 4·HOU 1
+6pp
McMahon homered to left (336 feet).
NYY 4·HOU 0
−7pp
Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored and Rice scored.
NYY 3·HOU 0
−14pp
Stanton grounded into double play, pitcher to catcher to first, Rice to second, Bellinger to third, Judge out at home.
NYY 1·HOU 0
+12pp
Rice grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, Judge to third.
NYY 1·HOU 0
−7pp
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
13
Hits
11
0
Errors
1
12
Runs
4
Player box score

NYY
17-9

T. Grisham★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0

A. Judge★
RF
OPS
0.600
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Bellinger★
LF
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Rice★
1B
OPS
1.400
H-AB
2-5
R
3
RBI
2
HR
1

G. Stanton★
DH
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Chisholm Jr.★
2B
OPS
2.300
H-AB
3-4
R
3
RBI
4
HR
1

J.C. Escarra★
C
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

R. McMahon★
3B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Caballero★
SS
OPS
1.750
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1

R. Grichuk
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
13-36
R
12
RBI
11
HR
4
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() T. Grisham★CF | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() A. Judge★RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
![]() C. Bellinger★LF | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
![]() B. Rice★1B | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.400 |
![]() G. Stanton★DH | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
![]() J. Chisholm Jr.★2B | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2.300 |
![]() J.C. Escarra★C | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 |
![]() R. McMahon★3B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
![]() J. Caballero★SS | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.750 |
![]() R. GrichukLF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 13-36 | 12 | 11 | 4 | — |

W. Warren★
SP
IP
6.0
H
7
ER
2
K
6

F. Cruz
RP
IP
1.0
H
3
ER
2
K
3

R. Yarbrough
RP
IP
2.0
H
1
ER
0
K
2
IP
9.0
H
11
ER
4
K
11
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() W. Warren★SP | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
![]() F. CruzRP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
![]() R. YarbroughRP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 4 | 11 |

HOU
10-17

C. Correa★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

Y. Alvarez★
LF
OPS
1.333
H-AB
2-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

I. Paredes★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Altuve★
2B
OPS
1.333
H-AB
2-3
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Walker★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Smith★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

D. Harris★
LF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

Y. Diaz★
C
OPS
1.750
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1

B. Matthews★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Shewmake
2B
OPS
2.500
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

C. Vazquez
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

S. Whitcomb
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Johnson
CF
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
11-36
R
4
RBI
4
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() C. Correa★SS | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() Y. Alvarez★LF | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.333 |
![]() I. Paredes★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Altuve★2B | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.333 |
![]() C. Walker★1B | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
![]() C. Smith★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() D. Harris★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() Y. Diaz★C | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.750 |
![]() B. Matthews★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() B. Shewmake2B | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.500 |
![]() C. VazquezC | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
![]() S. Whitcomb3B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() D. JohnsonCF | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
| Team | 11-36 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |

L. McCullers Jr.★
SP
IP
5.0
H
6
ER
5
K
3

C. Gordon
SP
IP
2.0
H
7
ER
5
K
0

J. Murray
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0

B. Abreu
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
13
ER
10
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() L. McCullers Jr.★SP | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
![]() C. GordonSP | 2.0 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
![]() J. MurrayRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() B. AbreuRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 13 | 10 | 4 |
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 9·NYY -156/HOU +129