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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CHC
CHC

CHC

28-16

2
0
ATL

ATL

30-14

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
36,367 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ATL no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

+0.5-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%54.3%ATL NO-VIG %MODEL 58.7%May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 2 · ATL 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000010102
ATL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.4pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best
+162DraftKings

edge +5.4pp · implied 35.9%

ATL

no live price

BookCHCATLBest edge
DraftKings+162★-215+5.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -186

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 2–0.

CHC +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Austin Riley

Austin Riley

3B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC28-16
2
0
ATL30-14
CHC28-16·ATL30-14
CHC

CHC

28-16

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-33000011
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-33221110
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44000001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44001001
SPRINT28.992
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT25.716
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000002
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-44010001
SPRINT257
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33010010
Team6-33332621310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BrownB. Brown★RP
4.0100170
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
2.0100010
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0100020
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0100010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100020
Team9.05001130
ATL

ATL

30-14

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010002
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT25.513
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-44000002
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.765
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-22000011
Team5-32320500113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
6.0510280
R. LopezR. LopezRP
1.2111111
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.1000010
Team9.06213101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • B. Brown
    65 pitches·29% CSW
    • KC
      40%·87.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      64%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      56%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      44%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      88%·100.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Maton
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      57%·89.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·89.0 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    100 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      43%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lopez
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      44%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·71.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      29%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

May 12CHCCHC2@ATLATL5
May 13CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
May 14CHCCHC2@ATLATL0today

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

May 12CHCCHC2@ATLATL5
May 13CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
May 14CHCCHC2@ATLATL0today
Sep 14ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 15ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 16ATLATL@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+15340%
ATLATL-18665%

↘7· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 8th Inning

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
A. Riley

A. Riley

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ATL 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 6th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 59% WP

Suzuki · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Happ to second, Happ safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Kim.

CHCTop 8th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 84% WP

Happ · homered to right center (424 feet).

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 86% WP

Albies · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000010102
ATL0000000000

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · ATL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
ATL

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  3. B9

    Smith lined out to center.

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  5. B9

    Riley to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  6. B9

    Riley to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  11. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Dominic Smith

    · ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  12. B9

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  13. B9

    Riley singled to right.

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

    +3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  19. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Austin Riley

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  20. B9

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  21. B9

    Dubón struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  25. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  26. B9

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  27. B9

    Harris II struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

    −6pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 2·ATL 0

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

2

Runs

0

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

9

TB

5

1

HR

0

3

BB

1

10

K

13

15

LOB

13

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC +153/ATL -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.6± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.6± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.6± 3.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 95
    162
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 92
    160
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 90
    300
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 90
    251
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278