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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PHI
PHI

PHI

24-23

6
0
PIT

PIT

24-23

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
37,820 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

PIT no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL60.3%51.3%PIT NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · PIT 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000230106
PIT0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPIT -131

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Konnor Griffin

Konnor Griffin

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI24-23
6
0
PIT24-23
PHI24-23·PIT24-23
PHI

PHI

24-23

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-55000004
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.632
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-11100011
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44123101
SPRINT28.688
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44110001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-44001000
Team8-35356862113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
7.0400180
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0100010
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000000
Team9.0500190
PIT

PIT

24-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT29.899
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-22000011
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-33000002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000001
Team5-3131050019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
5.0655171
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0100000
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0000030
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0111021
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000010
Team9.08661132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    98 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.3 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.4 mph·8% whiff
    • FS
      12%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      6%·98.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Banks
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      38%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.7 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      34%·97.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.2 mph·43% whiff
    • FS
      14%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.6 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      5%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      39%·83.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      33%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

May 15PHIPHI11@PITPIT9
May 16PHIPHI6@PITPIT0
May 17PHIPHI6@PITPIT0today

Season series

PHI leads series 3-0

May 15PHIPHI11@PITPIT9
May 16PHIPHI6@PITPIT0
May 17PHIPHI6@PITPIT0today
Jun 29PITPIT@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 30PITPIT@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 1PITPIT@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 2PITPIT@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+10848%
PITPIT-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 5th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
K. Griffin

K. Griffin

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat PIT 6-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 5th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 72% WP

Turner · singled to right, Realmuto scored.

PHITop 6th Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 85% WP

Harper · homered to center (401 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000230106
PIT0000000000

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · PIT won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Crawford 1

3
0

Inn 6

Stott 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Stott 1

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
PIT

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  3. B9

    Horwitz popped out to third.

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  6. B9

    Tanner Banks pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  7. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  8. B9

    Gonzales lined out to right.

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  12. B9

    Tanner Banks pitches to Nick Gonzales

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  13. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  14. B9

    Reynolds flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  19. B9

    Tanner Banks pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  20. B9

    Banks relieved Bowlan

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  23. T9

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  24. T9

    Schwarber struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 6·PIT 0

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

6

Runs

0

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

17

TB

6

2

HR

0

1

BB

1

13

K

9

11

LOB

8

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7.5·PHI +108/PIT -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+119

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    47.3%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 14, 26sim 96
    245
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    171
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    296
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    293
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    20
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586