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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

22-27

2
1
NYY

NYY

30-20

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
37,497 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

60.2%

open 59.3% · +0.9

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.2%55.3%NYY NO-VIG %May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · NYY 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000002002
NYY0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 21, 26sim 97
    142
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 96
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    260
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    144
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 94
    262
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    202
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

NYY

★ best
-178DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 60.3%

BookTORNYYBest edge
DraftKings+137-178★+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -166

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR22-27
2
1
NYY30-20
TOR22-27·NYY30-20
TOR

TOR

22-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44010001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33011000
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44010003
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000003
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
0-44000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.354
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-22020010
SPRINT25.818
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-33110000
SPRINT24.64
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33011012
SPRINT27.560
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team8-32322820211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
6.0200080
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1200000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
0.2000000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0110020
Team9.05100110
NYY

NYY

30-20

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000004
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT24.74
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-11010000
SPRINT26.735
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000002
S. JonesS. JonesRF
0-11000000
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
0-22000001
Team5-33331510011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.0822270
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
1.0000010
Y. CruzY. CruzRP
2.0000030
Team9.08222110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    95 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.2 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      31%·83.8 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.2 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Varland
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • KC
      29%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·99.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      90%·83.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      10%·72.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      38%·91.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      63%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      25%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.7 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    106 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      33%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      11%·98.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      5%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      1%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cruz
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      53%·99.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Bird
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      70%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1today
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0

Season series

NYY lead series 2-1

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1today
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0
Jun 12NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 13NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 15NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 16NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 21TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 22TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 23TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+13742%
NYYNYY-16662%

↘7· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TORTOR
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 2-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 80% WP

Austin Wells · challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Andrés Giménez walks. Ernie Clement scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd.

TORBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 74% WP

Rosario · fouled out to right, Chisholm Jr. to third.

TORBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 100% WP

Rosario · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000002002
NYY0000000011

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

1

8

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

9

TB

7

0

HR

0

2

BB

0

11

K

11

16

LOB

9

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·TOR +137/NYY -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Goldschmidt 1

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Rosario struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

    −16pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Amed Rosario

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Goldschmidt grounded out to pitcher, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  16. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 1

  17. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  18. B9

    Chisholm Jr. safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Varland, Bellinger safe at third on error.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

    +8pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  25. B9

    Louis Varland pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    · ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  26. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  27. B9

    Bellinger doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

    +8pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·NYY 0

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.16

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-163

Close price

-180

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

61.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Carlos RodonNYY
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.9%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175