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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ATH
SF

SF

18-27

2
5
ATH

ATH

23-21

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,348 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

PK

open PK

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATH no-vig %

55.3%

open 56.3% · -1.0

+0.5-0.5ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL60.3%51.3%ATH NO-VIG %May 14, 10 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

SF 2 · ATH 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0001100002
ATH010040005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.9pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
+109DraftKings

edge +3.9pp · implied 45.8%

ATH

no live price

BookSFATHBest edge
DraftKings+109★-131+3.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasATH -131

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off San Francisco Giants, 5–2.

ATH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF18-27
2
5
ATH23-21
SF18-27·ATH23-21
SF

SF

18-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-55010000
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
4-55141100
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-55000002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000011
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT27.457
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-33000010
D. SusacD. Susac★C
0-44000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-44121101
SPRINT27.662
C. SchmittC. SchmittDH
0-11000000
Team10-37372102227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.01055161
S. HentgesS. HentgesRP
1.0000010
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.0000010
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0000010
Team8.01055191
ATH

ATH

23-21

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33113102
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44110000
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010002
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44010003
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
2-44021000
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-33100011
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT26.530
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-22010000
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-33121000
SPRINT25.920
Team10-30305105119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
5.0622122
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
1.0100020
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
1.0200010
L. MedinaL. MedinaRP
1.0000110
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0100010
Team9.01022272

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

May 16SFSF2@ATHATH5today
May 17SFSF6@ATHATH4
May 17SFSF10@ATHATH1

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

May 16SFSF2@ATHATH5today
May 17SFSF6@ATHATH4
May 17SFSF10@ATHATH1
Jun 24ATHATH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 25ATHATH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 25ATHATH@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10948%
ATHATH-13157%

↗6· 3.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat SF 5-2. Kurtz's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

ATH vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 44% WP

Arraez · homered to right (350 feet).

SFTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 58% WP

Bader · homered to left (372 feet).

ATHBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+28pp→ 83% WP

Kurtz · homered to center (417 feet), Butler scored and McNeil scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0001100002
ATH01004000—5

Period scoring

SF won 1 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

McNeil 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Arraez 1

1
4

Inn 5

Bader 1

Kurtz 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
ATH

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  2. T9

    Chapman grounded out to catcher.

    · ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  5. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  6. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  7. T9

    Arraez reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

    −1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  15. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Luis Arraez

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  16. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  17. T9

    Lee grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

    +1pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  20. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  21. T9

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  22. T9

    Bader struck out looking.

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

    +2pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  26. T9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Harrison Bader

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  27. T9

    Harris relieved Medina

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 2·ATH 5

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 2·ATH 5

  30. B8

    ·

    SF 2·ATH 5

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

2

Runs

5

10

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

18

TB

15

2

HR

1

2

BB

1

7

K

9

18

LOB

7

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 10·SF +109/ATH -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATH vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.4%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 23, 26sim 98
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 98
    184
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 97
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 97
    185
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872