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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYM
MIN

MIN

12-12

2
3
NYM

NYM

8-16

Citi Field · Queens, New York
32,665 attended

Line movement

26 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%55.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 25, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIN 2 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0001010002
NYM100100013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 98
    144
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 97
    62
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    142
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    307
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 95
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -163

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Minnesota Twins, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (NYM won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN12-12
2
3
NYM8-16
MIN12-12·NYM8-16
MIN

MIN

12-12

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55111102
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT26.632
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-22001010
SPRINT24.22
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44010001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010003
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010000
Team7-3333272137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PrielippC. Prielipp★SP
4.0422060
K. RojasK. RojasRP
2.0200300
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.0000020
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2111100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.1100100
Team8.0833580
NYM

NYM

8-16

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-44000001
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-22121000
SPRINT26.941
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33011010
SPRINT25.716
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33011012
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010001
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000002
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-33010001
Team8-2929383058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
7.0522131
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2100110
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.1100130
Team9.0722371

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • C. Prielipp
    82 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      51%·88.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Rojas
    35 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      37%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Topa
    17 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      42%·87.1 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      42%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Orze
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      36%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.4 mph·100% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      73%·93.2 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    30 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      50%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      47%·94.9 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Raley
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·85.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3today
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3today
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+13543%
NYMNYM-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

C. Prielipp

C. Prielipp

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat MIN 3-2. Vientos's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

NYM vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 44% WP

Buxton · homered to left (409 feet).

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+21pp→ 71% WP

Soto · singled to right.

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+28pp→ 89% WP

Vientos · singled to right, Baty scored, Alvarez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0001010002
NYM10010001—3

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · NYM won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Caratini 1

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Buxton 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Vientos 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  2. T9

    Buxton struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  8. T9

    Luke Weaver pitches to Byron Buxton

    · ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  9. T9

    Outman ran for Lee

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  10. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  11. T9

    Lee reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

    −4pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  16. T9

    Luke Weaver pitches to Brooks Lee

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  17. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  18. T9

    Lewis struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

    +4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Luke Weaver pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  26. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  27. T9

    Wallner struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

    +4pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·NYM 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

2

Runs

3

7

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

12

TB

11

1

HR

0

3

BB

5

7

K

8

13

LOB

13

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +135/NYM -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.8± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    51.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175