
MIN
12-12

NYM
8-16
Line movement
26 snapshots
NYM spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
NYM no-vig %
59.3%
open 59.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYM wins
MIN 2 · NYM 3 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked NYM +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+135
Close price
+135
Open no-vig
40.7%
Close no-vig
40.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
ew York Mets held off Minnesota Twins, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.
MIN +1.5 cashed (NYM won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer

Byron Buxton
CF
5-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
NYM · top performer

Francisco Lindor
SS
2-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


MIN
12-12
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT29.597 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT24.22 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 7-33 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
NYM
8-16
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 8-29 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantMIN
NYM
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
8
2
Runs
3
1
Errors
0
Current series
NYM win series 2-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 26 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 8th Inning
B. Buxton
CFBatter of the game
1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS
C. Prielipp
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H
F. Lindor
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
C. Holmes
SPStarting pitcher
7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
How it ended
NYM beat MIN 3-2. Vientos's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).
Win probability
NYM vs MIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBuxton · homered to left (409 feet).
Soto · singled to right.
Vientos · singled to right, Baty scored, Alvarez to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
MIN won 1 · NYM won 2
Inn 1
Lindor 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Caratini 1
Alvarez 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Buxton 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Vientos 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 557 plays
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Buxton struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
+7pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Luke Weaver pitches to Byron Buxton
· ·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Outman ran for Lee
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Lee reached on infield single to shortstop.
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
−4pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Luke Weaver pitches to Brooks Lee
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Lewis struck out looking.
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
+4pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Luke Weaver pitches to Royce Lewis
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Wallner struck out swinging.
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
+4pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 2·NYM 3
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NYM
Home
2
Runs
3
7
Hits
8
1
Errors
0
12
TB
11
1
HR
0
3
BB
5
7
K
8
13
LOB
13
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +135/NYM -163
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 70 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · NYM favored
Elo Static
51.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.76 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohort