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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
TOR

TOR

19-25

2
3
DET

DET

20-25

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
31,038 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

45.8%

open 44.9% · +0.9

+2.0-0.5DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL49.9%40.9%DET NO-VIG %May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

TOR 2 · DET 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0200000002
DET0010010013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

DET

★ best
+105DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 46.7%

BookTORDETBest edge
DraftKings-126+105★+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -126

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Toronto Blue Jays, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon Valenzuela

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR19-25
2
3
DET20-25
TOR19-25·DET20-25
TOR

TOR

19-25

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000000
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2622
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000001
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000001
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT25.818
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-22100010
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33012001
SPRINT27.560
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-22010010
Team5-2929252026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
6.0422360
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000110
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
1.0100000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
0.2211120
Team8.2733590
DET

DET

20-25

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-33100010
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-33120010
SPRINT27.765
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT2744
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
G. WorkmanG. Workman★3B
0-44000003
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000011
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33011011
SPRINT26.123
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
0-22000010
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-11010000
Team7-3030372059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. HanifeeB. Hanifee★RP
1.0111010
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2111210
T. MaddenT. MaddenSP
0.1100000
B. SmithB. SmithRP
2.0100010
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
4.0100010
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000020
Team9.0522260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    88 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.7 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      31%·82.2 mph·58% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      43%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      43%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      30%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.2 mph·— whiff

DET

  • D. Anderson
    46 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      35%·90.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Smith
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      57%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      88%·92.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·88.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Madden
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·78.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 15TORTOR2@DETDET3today
May 16TORTOR2@DETDET1
May 17TORTOR4@DETDET1

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

May 15TORTOR2@DETDET3today
May 16TORTOR2@DETDET1
May 17TORTOR4@DETDET1
Sep 14DETDET@TORTORupcoming
Sep 15DETDET@TORTORupcoming
Sep 16DETDET@TORTORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-12656%
DETDET+10549%

↘4· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 40pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TORTOR
B. Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Anderson

D. Anderson

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

DET beat TOR 3-2. Torkelson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Win probability

DET vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+21pp→ 71% WP

Gim · énez doubled to right, Clement scored and Okamoto scored.

DETBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 52% WP

Dingler · reached on infield single to second, Dingler safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Clement.

DETBottom 9th Inning · 2-3
+40pp→ 100% WP

Torkelson · doubled to right, Vierling scored, McKinstry to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0200000002
DET0010010013

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Gim 2

0
1

Inn 3

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Torkelson 1

TOR
DET

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 3

  2. B9

    Torkelson doubled to right, Vierling scored, McKinstry to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 3

    +40pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  8. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  10. B9

    McKinstry intentionally walked.

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

    +4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  13. B9

    Vierling stole second.

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  14. B9

    Vierling stole second.

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  17. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Zach McKinstry

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  18. B9

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  19. B9

    Workman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

    −8pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  24. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Gage Workman

    · ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  25. B9

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  26. B9

    Vierling singled to center.

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

    +5pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 2·DET 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

7

TB

9

0

HR

0

2

BB

5

6

K

9

7

LOB

13

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8·TOR -126/DET +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • George SpringerTOR
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Yohendrick PinangoTOR
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    52.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 99
    62
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 97
    144
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 97
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 96
    12
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 94
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278