• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1BAL
BAL

BAL

4-6

2
1
CHW

CHW

4-6

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
17,221 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 47.8%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 2 · CHW 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0001010002
CHW0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasBAL -136

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

CHW +1.5 cashed (BAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Austin Hays

Austin Hays

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL4-6
2
1
CHW4-6
BAL4-6·CHW4-6
BAL

BAL

4-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44111103
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000000
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-33100011
SPRINT26.632
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT27.662
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-33020001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010001
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33010000
Team7-3131272117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
5.0200220
T. WellsT. WellsRP
2.0100120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0111210
Team9.0411560
CHW

CHW

4-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-33020010
SPRINT2744
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.148
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33000011
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000001
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-11010000
SPRINT27.354
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000001
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33000000
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
0-11001000
SPRINT26.941
Team4-2929141056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. TaylorG. Taylor★RP
1.0100010
E. FeddeE. FeddeSP
6.0522141
L. SimsL. SimsRP
2.0100020
Team9.0722171

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • B. Young
    66 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.7 mph·27% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·77.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      42%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      70%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • E. Fedde
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      35%·81.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      31%·90.3 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
  • L. Sims
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      69%·98.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      19%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1today
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1today
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3
Jun 29CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jun 30CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jul 1CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-13658%
CHWCHW+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 9th Inning

BALBAL
R. Mountcastle

R. Mountcastle

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

CHWCHW
A. Hays

A. Hays

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Top reliever

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 2-1. Quero's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 54% WP

O'Neill · singled to left, Rutschman scored.

BALTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 78% WP

Henderson · homered to right (389 feet).

BALBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 100% WP

Quero · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0001010002
CHW0000000011

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

O'Neill 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Sosa 1

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  3. B9

    Quero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  8. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Edgar Quero

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  10. B9

    Benintendi reached on infield single to third, Vargas to third.

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

    +4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  12. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  14. B9

    Sosa grounded out to shortstop, Murakami scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

    −14pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  21. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 1

  22. B9

    Sosa hit for Hill

    ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  23. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  24. B9

    Montgomery grounded out to first, Vargas to second, Murakami to third.

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

    −5pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  27. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  28. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

  29. B9

    Vargas walked, Murakami to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

    +13pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 2·CHW 0

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

11

TB

4

1

HR

0

1

BB

5

7

K

6

10

LOB

16

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL -136/CHW +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 9, 26sim 98
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872