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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIN
DET

DET

4-9

1
3
MIN

MIN

7-6

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
19,054 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL47.7%39.7%MIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

DET 1 · MIN 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000001001
MIN000100023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 98
    12
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 4-0/VegasDET -143

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Detroit Tigers, 3–1.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Javier Baez

Javier Baez

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET4-9
1
3
MIN7-6
DET4-9·MIN7-6
DET

DET

4-9

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT25.18
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000010
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000011
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.251
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-33000001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-22100001
K. McGonigleK. McGonigleSS
0-11000000
D. DinglerD. DinglerC
0-11000001
Team5-3131151039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.2511361
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.1100120
W. VestW. VestRP
0.2322110
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.1000000
Team8.0933591
MIN

MIN

7-6

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33000012
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-33000012
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
3-44131100
SPRINT25.18
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT2622
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44110000
SPRINT24.22
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-22000021
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-22010000
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-22000001
A. MartinA. MartinLF
1-11010000
B. LeeB. LeeSS
1-11012000
SPRINT26.428
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall2B
0-22000001
Team9-3131393159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. AbelM. Abel★SP
6.0400360
G. ActonG. ActonRP
2.0111020
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    89 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.0 mph·12% whiff
    • KC
      27%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      3%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Holton
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      42%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·92.0 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • M. Abel
    102 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.0 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Acton
    35 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Orze
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      43%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      36%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 4-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3today

Season series

MIN leads series 4-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3today
Jun 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 10MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 11MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Aug 31DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 1DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 2DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 7MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 8MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-14359%
MINMIN+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 8th Inning

DETDET
J. Baez

J. Baez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Abel

M. Abel

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIN beat DET 3-1. Lee's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

MIN vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 54% WP

McKinstry · walked.

DETTop 7th Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 42% WP

Keith · singled to center, Rogers to third.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 1-3
+31pp→ 95% WP

Lee · singled to right, Caratini scored and Wallner scored, Lewis to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000001001
MIN00010002—3

Period scoring

DET won 1 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Bell 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Torres 1

0
2

Inn 8

Lee 2

0

Inn 9

DET
MIN

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  2. T9

    Dingler struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  8. T9

    Eric Orze pitches to Dillon Dingler

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  9. T9

    Dingler hit for Rogers

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  10. T9

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  11. T9

    McGonigle flied out to center.

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  15. T9

    Eric Orze pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  16. T9

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  17. T9

    Báez flied out to center.

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

    +2pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  24. T9

    Eric Orze pitches to Javier Baez

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  25. T9

    Orze relieved Acton

    ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 1·MIN 3

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 1·MIN 3

  28. B8

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  29. B8

    Keaschall flied out to right.

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 1·MIN 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

1

Runs

3

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

7

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

5

9

K

9

19

LOB

18

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·DET -143/MIN +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.6± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.8%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.