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Live · 7
  • MLBBot 1
    SEA 0@HOU 0
    +5.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    ARI 1@TEX 0
    -15.8ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 6
    NYY 2@BAL 0
    -41.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 5@TOR 3
    -39.2pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAA 0@CLE 7
    +41.9pplow
  • NBA8:13 - 1st
    DET 5@CLE 10
    +10.0ppmedium
  • NHL15:56 - 1st
    COL 0@MIN 0
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THE ONE Analytics
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SEA logo
SEA
0
LiveBot 1st
HOU logo
HOU
0
Updated 8:18 PM ET
BOT 1STTied
SEA

SEA

19-22

0
0
HOU

HOU

16-25

Live · model leanBot 1stPolls every 30s

51.2%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 53.1% SEA

SEA 0 · 0 HOU

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 1
away leadsHOU leads
Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.36

G. Kirby

4-2 · 2.94 ERA

vs

P. Lambert

2-2 · 2.42 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

42.8%

open 44.9% · -2.1

+2.0+1.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL48.9%38.8%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 46.9%May 10, 5 PMMay 11, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelTossup
Mon, May 11
SEA

SEA★

Mariners

19-26

vs53.1%SEA

HOU

Astros

15-29

HOU
SEA 53.1%win prob46.9% HOU
SEA 1494 · HOU 1449Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 60-37
60%Last 30 · 256-174
Receipts →

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 56 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Emerson HancockSEA
    6.3± 4.9low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    6.0± 3.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.8± 3.5low

Hits

  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.2± 0.7high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.3± 2.4high
  • Braden ShewmakeHOU
    2.0± 2.7low
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Luke RaleySEA
    0.9± 2.3high
  • Zach ColeHOU
    0.8± 1.6low
  • Brice MatthewsHOU
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Lance McCullers Jr.HOU
    4.0± 2.5low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.1± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

52% confidence

Win prob · home

52.7%

+5.8ppvs pre-game · HOU favored

Leverage

45

medium

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Mon, May 11·Bot 1st/SeriesSEA leads series 4-0/VegasSEA -156
Updated 0s ago

SEA · top performer

SEA
Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan

3B

0.000OPS

1-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Bot 1stTied
SEA19-22
0
0
HOU16-25
SEA19-22·HOU16-25
SEA

SEA

19-22

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-11000000
SPRINT25.18
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-11000000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-11000000
SPRINT23.81
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-00000000
SPRINT25.716
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-00000000
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-00000000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-00000000
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★RF
0-00000000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-00000000
Team0-33000000
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
0.0100000
Team0.0100000
HOU

HOU

16-25

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-11010000
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★LF
0-00000000
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-00000000
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-00000000
SPRINT25.920
Z. ColeZ. Cole★CF
0-00000000
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-00000000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★LF
0-00000000
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★2B
0-00000000
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-00000000
Team0-00000000
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. LambertP. Lambert★SP
1.0000000
Team1.0000000

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

Hits

0

0

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

SEA leads series 4-0

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6
May 12SEASEA@HOUHOUtoday
May 13SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
May 14SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
May 14SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEASEA-15661%
HOUHOU+12944%

↗10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
SEASEASP
G. Kirby

G. Kirby

#68 · 4-2

ERA

2.94

K

39

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsATLATL7.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-
4/29@MINMIN5.2 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-
4/25@STLSTL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 2 KW(4-2)
VS
HOUHOUSP
P. Lambert

P. Lambert

#38 · 2-2

ERA

2.42

K

23

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vsLADLAD7.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 KW(2-2)
4/30@BALBAL4.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(1-2)
4/22@CLECLE6.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
SEASEA6L · 2R · 1S
  1. 1

    B. Donovan

    3B · #33

    L
  2. 2

    J. Rodriguez

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    J. Naylor

    1B · #12

    L
  4. 4

    C. Raleigh

    C · #29

    B
  5. 5

    R. Arozarena

    LF · #56

    R
  6. 6

    L. Raley

    RF · #20

    L
  7. 7

    J.P. Crawford

    SS · #3

    L
  8. 8

    D. Canzone

    DH · #8

    L
  9. 9

    C. Young

    2B · #2

    L
HOUHOU3L · 6R
  1. 1

    J. Altuve

    2B · #27

    R
  2. 2

    Y. Alvarez

    DH · #44

    L
  3. 3

    I. Paredes

    3B · #15

    R
  4. 4

    C. Walker

    1B · #8

    R
  5. 5

    Z. Cole

    LF · #16

    L
  6. 6

    C. Smith

    RF · #11

    R
  7. 7

    B. Matthews

    CF · #0

    R
  8. 8

    B. Shewmake

    SS · #28

    L
  9. 9

    C. Vazquez

    C · #2

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 1st
Game flowSEA ↔ HOU

Recent swing: 5pp · —

Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Ball 1

SEASEA
B. Donovan

B. Donovan

3B

Batter of the game

0-for-1 · 0.000 OPS

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Lambert

P. Lambert

SP

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 0 ER

Win probability

HOU vs SEA

0255075100

Linescore (innings)

Team1R
SEA00
HOU00

Play-by-play · 25 plays

period
event
player
  1. B1

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  2. B1

    George Kirby pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  3. B1

    Bottom of the 1st inning

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  4. M1

    Middle of the 1st inning

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  5. T1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  6. T1

    Naylor flied out to center.

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

    +1pp

  7. T1

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  8. T1

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  9. T1

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  10. T1

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  11. T1

    Peter Lambert pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  12. T1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  13. T1

    Rodríguez lined out to right.

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

    +2pp

  14. T1

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  15. T1

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  16. T1

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  17. T1

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  18. T1

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  19. T1

    Peter Lambert pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  20. T1

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  21. T1

    Donovan grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  22. T1

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  23. T1

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  24. T1

    Peter Lambert pitches to Brendan Donovan

    ·

    SEA 0·HOU 0

  25. T1

    Top of the 1st inning

    SEA 0·HOU 0

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

0

Runs

0

0

Hits

0

0

Errors

0

0

TB

0

0

HR

0

0

BB

0

0

K

0

0

LOB

0

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8.5·SEA -156/HOU +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175