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THE ONE Analytics
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NYY logo
NYY
2
LiveEnd 6th
BAL logo
BAL
0
Updated 8:19 PM ET
END 6TH+2NYY↑
NYY

NYY

26-15

2
0
BAL

BAL

18-23

Live · model leanEnd 6thPolls every 30s

64.2%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 56.9% NYY

NYY 2 · 0 BAL

NYY +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsBAL leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingNYYTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
    +17pp→ 76% WP

    Rice · homered to left center (374 feet), Grisham scored.

  • ↺Lead flipBALBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
    +9pp→ 51% WP

    Ward · walked.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.38

R. Weathers

2-2 · 3.03 ERA

vs

B. Young

3-1 · 4.35 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

39.2%

open 38.4% · +0.8

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL43.2%34.4%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 43.1%May 10, 9 PMMay 11, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
Mon, May 11
NYY

NYY★

Yankees

27-18

vs56.9%NYY

BAL

Orioles

22-23

BAL
NYY 56.9%win prob43.1% BAL
NYY 1561 · BAL 1488Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 60-37
60%Last 30 · 256-174
Receipts →

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.6± 1.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.4± 3.0low

Hits

  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.7± 3.2high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    2.3± 2.0high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.2± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Shane BazBAL
    3.4± 2.2low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 3.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    43.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

1.8%

-41.3ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

6

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Mon, May 11·End 6th/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasNYY -149
Updated 0s ago

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

0.500OPS

1-0

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

End 6th
NYY26-15
2
0
BAL18-23
NYY26-15·BAL18-23
NYY

NYY

26-15

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-22100010
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-33122100
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-11000020
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33000002
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000001
S. JonesS. Jones★CF
0-22000001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★3B
0-22000001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000000
Team3-2121232136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeathersR. Weathers★SP
6.0000290
Team6.0000290
BAL

BAL

18-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22000010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33000000
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-22000001
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.29
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-22000002
SPRINT27.662
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-11000011
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-22000001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-22000002
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000002
Team0-1818000029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
5.1322351
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
0.2000010
Team6.0322361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • R. Weathers
    85 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      26%·85.5 mph·58% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.9 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      22%·79.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.8 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • B. Young
    97 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.9 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      13%·74.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Enns
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

0

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

NYY lead series 4-0

May 1BALBAL2@NYYNYY7
May 2BALBAL4@NYYNYY9
May 3BALBAL3@NYYNYY11
May 4BALBAL1@NYYNYY12
May 11NYYNYY@BALBALtoday
May 12NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
May 13NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 18NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 19NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 20NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Sep 25BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 26BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 27BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming

Season series

NYY win series 2-1

Feb 20NYYNYY0@BALBAL2
Mar 19BALBAL4@NYYNYY5
Mar 20BALBAL1@NYYNYY3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-14960%
BALBAL+12445%

↘5· 2.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
NYYNYYSP
R. Weathers

R. Weathers

#40 · 2-2

ERA

3.03

K

45

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vsBALBAL5.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(2-2)
4/25@HOUHOU5.1 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-
4/19vsKCKC7.1 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(1-2)
VS
BALBALSP
B. Young

B. Young

#63 · 3-1

ERA

4.35

K

14

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@MIAMIA6.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 KW(3-1)
4/30vsHOUHOU4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(2-1)
4/24vsBOSBOS5.2 IP · 3 ER · 5 KW(2-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
NYYNYY7L · 2R
  1. 1

    T. Grisham

    CF · #12

    L
  2. 2

    B. Rice

    1B · #22

    L
  3. 3

    A. Judge

    RF · #99

    R
  4. 4

    C. Bellinger

    LF · #35

    L
  5. 5

    J. Chisholm Jr.

    2B · #13

    L
  6. 6

    R. McMahon

    3B · #19

    L
  7. 7

    S. Jones

    DH · #78

    L
  8. 8

    M. Schuemann

    SS · #30

    R
  9. 9

    A. Wells

    C · #28

    L
BALBAL1L · 6R · 2S
  1. 1

    T. Ward

    LF · #3

    R
  2. 2

    G. Henderson

    SS · #2

    L
  3. 3

    A. Rutschman

    C · #35

    B
  4. 4

    P. Alonso

    1B · #25

    R
  5. 5

    T. O'Neill

    RF · #9

    R
  6. 6

    C. Mayo

    DH · #16

    R
  7. 7

    L. Taveras

    CF · #30

    B
  8. 8

    W. Wilson

    3B · #32

    R
  9. 9

    B. Alexander

    2B · #23

    R

Live · top performers so far

End 6th
Game flowNYY ↔ BAL

Recent swing: 5pp · Top 6th Inning

Just happened

End of the 6th inning

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 0 ER

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the game

0-for-1 · 0.500 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 3 ER

How it's going

NYY lead BAL 2-0 (End 6th).

Win probability

BAL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 51% WP

Ward · walked.

NYYTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 76% WP

Rice · homered to left center (374 feet), Grisham scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
NYY0020002
BAL0000000

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · BAL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Rice 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

NYY
BAL

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 6t

    End of the 6th inning

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  2. B6

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  3. B6

    Henderson grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

    −1pp

  4. B6

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  5. B6

    Ryan Weathers pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  6. B6

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  7. B6

    Ward grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

    −2pp

  8. B6

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  9. B6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  10. B6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  11. B6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  12. B6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  13. B6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  14. B6

    Ryan Weathers pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  15. B6

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  16. B6

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

    +0.5pp

  17. B6

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  18. B6

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  19. B6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  20. B6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  21. B6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  22. B6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  23. B6

    Ryan Weathers pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  24. B6

    Bottom of the 6th inning

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  25. M6

    Middle of the 6th inning

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  26. T6

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  27. T6

    McMahon grounded out to first.

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  28. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  29. T6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

  30. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

0

3

Hits

0

0

Errors

0

7

TB

0

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

6

K

9

7

LOB

5

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 9·NYY -149/BAL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872
Live · 7
  • MLBBot 1
    SEA 0@HOU 0
    +5.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    ARI 1@TEX 0
    -15.8ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 6
    NYY 2@BAL 0
    -41.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 6@TOR 3
    -42.7pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAA 0@CLE 7
    +41.9pplow
  • NBA7:45 - 1st
    DET 5@CLE 13
    +15.8ppmedium
  • NHL15:05 - 1st
    COL 0@MIN 0