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THE ONE Analytics
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ARI logo
ARI
1
LiveMid 6th
TEX logo
TEX
0
Updated 9:25 PM ET
MID 6TH+1ARI↑
ARI

ARI

19-20

1
0
TEX

TEX

19-21

Live · model leanMid 6thPolls every 30s

53.5%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 56.0% TEX

ARI 1 · 0 TEX

ARI +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingARIBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
    +9pp→ 50% WP

    Jung · struck out swinging.

  • ↺Lead flipARITop 1st Inning · 1-0
    +11pp→ 56% WP

    Perdomo · doubled to right, Carroll scored.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.79

M. Soroka

4-2 · 4.14 ERA

vs

J. Junis

0-0 · 1.65 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TEX no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 56.0%May 10, 5 PMMay 11, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
ARI1

ARI

Diamondbacks

21-20

vs56.0%TEX

TEX★

Rangers

22-22

TEX0
ARI 44.0%win prob56.0% TEX
TEX 1518 · ARI 1500Box score→

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THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 60-37
60%Last 30 · 256-174
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

12.8%

-43.2ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

37

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Mon, May 11·Mid 6th/SeriesARI wins series 2-0/VegasTEX -115
Updated 0s ago

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Mid 6th
ARI19-20
1
0
TEX19-21
ARI19-20·TEX19-21
ARI

ARI

19-20

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000000
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-22110010
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT26.838
AA. Del Castillo★C
0-33000002
SPRINT26.326
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-22000001
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-22010000
SPRINT25.29
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-22000001
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-22000000
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-22000000
Team3-2121131015
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
5.0200140
Team5.0200140
TEX

TEX

19-21

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT28.278
E. DuranE. Duran★LF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.891
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-22000000
SPRINT24.96
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-22000001
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-22000000
SPRINT28.175
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★1B
0-11000010
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-22000001
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-22000001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-11000000
Team2-1616020014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunisJ. Junis★RP
2.2211020
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0100110
P. GrayP. GrayRP
2.1000020
Team6.0311150

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

2

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Season series

May 12ARIARI@TEXTEXtoday
May 13ARIARI@TEXTEXupcoming
May 14ARIARI@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 12TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 13TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 13TEXTEX@ARIARIupcoming

Season series

ARI wins series 2-0

Feb 24ARIARI6@TEXTEX4
Mar 21TEXTEX2@ARIARI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ARIARI-10551%
TEXTEX-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ARIARISP
M. Soroka

M. Soroka

#34 · 4-2

ERA

4.14

K

42

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/7vsPITPIT6.1 IP · 1 ER · 6 KL(4-2)
4/30@MILMIL3.0 IP · 8 ER · 2 KL(4-1)
4/23vsCHWCHW5.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-
VS
TEXTEXRP
J. Junis

J. Junis

#16 · 0-0

ERA

1.65

K

7

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/9vsCHCCHC1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
5/1@DETDET1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-
4/29vsNYYNYY1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
ARIARI2L · 4R · 3S
  1. 1

    K. Marte

    2B · #4

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  4. 4

    A. Del Castillo

    DH · #25

    L
  5. 5

    I. Vargas

    1B · #6

    B
  6. 6

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  7. 7

    L. Gurriel Jr.

    LF · #12

    R
  8. 8

    G. Moreno

    C · #14

    R
  9. 9

    R. Waldschmidt

    CF · #15

    R
TEXTEX5L · 4R
  1. 1

    B. Nimmo

    RF · #24

    L
  2. 2

    E. Duran

    2B · #20

    R
  3. 3

    C. Seager

    SS · #5

    L
  4. 4

    J. Jung

    3B · #6

    R
  5. 5

    E. Carter

    CF · #32

    L
  6. 6

    J. Pederson

    DH · #3

    L
  7. 7

    A. Osuna

    LF · #19

    L
  8. 8

    J. Burger

    1B · #21

    R
  9. 9

    K. Higashioka

    C · #11

    R

Live · top performers so far

Mid 6th
Game flowARI ↔ TEX
Just happened

Middle of the 6th inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 0 ER

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

J. Junis

J. Junis

RP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 3 ER

How it's going

ARI lead TEX 1-0 (Mid 6th).

Win probability

TEX vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 56% WP

Perdomo · doubled to right, Carroll scored.

ARIBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 50% WP

Jung · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
ARI1000001
TEX00000—0

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · TEX won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0

Inn 6

ARI
TEX

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period
event
player
  1. M6

    Middle of the 6th inning

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  2. T6

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  3. T6

    Del Castillo struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

    +0.9pp

  4. T6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  5. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  6. T6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  7. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  8. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  9. T6

    Peyton Gray pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  10. T6

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  11. T6

    Perdomo struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

    +2pp

  12. T6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  13. T6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  14. T6

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  15. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  16. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  17. T6

    Peyton Gray pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  18. T6

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  19. T6

    Carroll flied out to right.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

    +2pp

  20. T6

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  21. T6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  22. T6

    Peyton Gray pitches to Corbin Carroll

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  23. T6

    Top of the 6th inning

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  24. End 5t

    End of the 5th inning

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  25. B5

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  26. B5

    Burger lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

    −1pp

  27. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  28. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  29. B5

    Michael Soroka pitches to Jake Burger

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

  30. B5

    ·

    ARI 1·TEX 0

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

0

3

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

6

TB

2

0

HR

0

1

BB

1

5

K

4

4

LOB

8

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 8·ARI -105/TEX -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    7.1± 3.3low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    6.1± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    6.0± 4.2low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
    1.0± 1.0medium

Total bases

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.7± 1.7high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    1.6± 1.2high

RBIs

  • Ryan WaldschmidtARI
    1.0± 2.3low
  • Adrian Del CastilloARI
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    4.4± 3.9low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.0± 3.7low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    2.9± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · 5
  • MLBMid 6
    ARI 1@TEX 0
    -43.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    SEA 3@HOU 0
    -45.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    TB 8@TOR 3
    -43.0pplow
  • NBAHalftime
    DET 56@CLE 52
  • NHL13:41 - 2nd
    COL 1@MIN 1