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    SEA 0@HOU 0
    +5.8ppmedium
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    LAA 0@CLE 7
    +41.9pplow
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    +15.8ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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LAA logo
LAA
0
LiveBot 6th
CLE logo
CLE
7
Updated 8:19 PM ET
BOT 6TH+7CLE↑
LAA

LAA

16-25

0
7
CLE

CLE

21-21

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

79.4%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 57.1% CLE

LAA 0 · 7 CLE

CLE +7

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6
away leadsCLE leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingCLEBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
    +16pp→ 84% WP

    Rocchio · singled to right, Manzardo scored and Schneemann scored, Bazzana to third.

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.46

B. Suter

1-1 · 4.03 ERA

vs

J. Cantillo

2-1 · 3.43 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL65.6%57.6%CLE NO-VIG %May 11, 12 AMMay 11, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
Mon, May 11
LAA

LAA

Angels

20-25

vs57.1%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

21-26

CLE
LAA 42.9%win prob57.1% CLE
CLE 1490 · LAA 1464Box score→

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 60-37
60%Last 30 · 256-174
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+41.9ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

3

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved

MLB·Mon, May 11·Bot 6th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasCLE -175
Updated 0s ago

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
David Fry

David Fry

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 6th
LAA16-25
0
7
CLE21-21
LAA16-25·CLE21-21
LAA

LAA

16-25

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-33000001
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-33000000
J. SolerJ. Soler★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT2622
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-33020000
SPRINT25.920
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-11000010
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-22000000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000000
Team5-2323050014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SuterB. Suter★RP
1.2222110
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
0.2133300
SPRINT27.148
K. YatesK. YatesRP
0.2222110
A. ManoahA. ManoahSP
2.1100410
Team5.1677930
CLE

CLE

21-21

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000011
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-33100010
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-11100031
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-22210010
SPRINT25.411
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-22121010
SPRINT25.716
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33212000
SPRINT27.457
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-11012020
SPRINT27.662
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33012000
SPRINT27.354
Team6-2222767093
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
6.0500140
Team6.0500140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • A. Manoah
    54 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      41%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      37%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·78.2 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Suter
    37 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      32%·76.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·75.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      11%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·92.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Yates
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      41%·83.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      5%·73.0 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    93 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      20%·80.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.4 mph·40% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

0

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Season series

May 11LAALAA@CLECLEtoday
May 12LAALAA@CLECLEupcoming
May 13LAALAA@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 25CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 26CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 26CLECLE@LAALAAupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 6LAALAA3@CLECLE5
Mar 13CLECLE2@LAALAA5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14441%
CLECLE-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
LAALAARP
B. Suter

B. Suter

#37 · 1-1

ERA

4.03

K

22

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/8@TORTOR1.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-
5/6vsCHWCHW0.2 IP · 1 ER · 0 K-
5/5vsCHWCHW1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
VS
CLECLESP
J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

#54 · 2-1

ERA

3.43

K

37

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@KCKC5.0 IP · 1 ER · 1 KW(2-1)
5/2@ATHATH4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 K-
4/25@TORTOR5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 KL(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
LAALAA1L · 8R
  1. 1

    Z. Neto

    SS · #9

    R
  2. 2

    M. Trout

    CF · #27

    R
  3. 3

    V. Grissom

    3B · #5

    R
  4. 4

    J. Soler

    DH · #12

    R
  5. 5

    J. Adell

    RF · #7

    R
  6. 6

    N. Schanuel

    1B · #18

    L
  7. 7

    O. Peraza

    2B · #2

    R
  8. 8

    S. Rivero

    C · #38

    R
  9. 9

    B. Teodosio

    LF · #22

    R
CLECLE5L · 2R · 2S
  1. 1

    S. Kwan

    LF · #38

    L
  2. 2

    C. DeLauter

    RF · #24

    L
  3. 3

    J. Ramirez

    3B · #11

    B
  4. 4

    R. Hoskins

    DH · #8

    R
  5. 5

    K. Manzardo

    1B · #9

    L
  6. 6

    D. Fry

    C · #6

    R
  7. 7

    D. Schneemann

    CF · #10

    L
  8. 8

    T. Bazzana

    2B · #37

    L
  9. 9

    B. Rocchio

    SS · #4

    B

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th
Game flowLAA ↔ CLE
Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Ball 1

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

A. Manoah

A. Manoah

SP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

CLECLE
D. Fry

D. Fry

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 0 ER

How it's going

CLE lead LAA 7-0 (Bot 6th).

Win probability

CLE vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 84% WP

Rocchio · singled to right, Manzardo scored and Schneemann scored, Bazzana to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456R
LAA0000000
CLE0250007

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Rocchio 2

0
5

Inn 3

Schneemann 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

LAA
CLE

Play-by-play · 431 plays

period
event
player
  1. B6

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  2. B6

    Alek Manoah pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  3. B6

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  4. B6

    Hoskins walked.

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  5. B6

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  6. B6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  7. B6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  8. B6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  9. B6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  10. B6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  11. B6

    Alek Manoah pitches to Rhys Hoskins

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  12. B6

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  13. B6

    Ramírez grounded out to second.

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

    +0.5pp

  14. B6

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  15. B6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  16. B6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  17. B6

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  18. B6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  19. B6

    Alek Manoah pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  20. B6

    Bottom of the 6th inning

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  21. M6

    Middle of the 6th inning

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  22. T6

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  23. T6

    Schanuel grounded out to catcher.

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  24. T6

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  25. T6

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  26. T6

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  27. T6

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  28. T6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  29. T6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

  30. T6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 0·CLE 7

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

0

Runs

7

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

1

BB

9

4

K

3

9

LOB

14

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAA +144/CLE -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CLE vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.3± 3.3low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.8± 3.1low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.5low

Hits

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    1.5± 1.1high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    2.2± 1.8high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.8± 3.1high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Chase DeLauterCLE
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.5± 3.1low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    2.6± 3.1low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    57.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen