MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 4TH+3TB

26-13

TOR

18-22

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

68.5%

TB wins · current

Pre-game: 56.0% TB

TB 6 · 3 TOR

TB +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsTOR leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTBTop 4th Inning · 6-3
+8pp→ 80% WP
Caminero · grounded out to third.
SwingTORBottom 2nd Inning · 5-3
+19pp→ 31% WP
Gim · énez homered to right (351 feet), Okamoto scored and Sánchez scored.
SwingTBTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+9pp→ 88% WP
Walls · tripled to center, Feduccia scored.
SwingTBTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+16pp→ 74% WP
Palacios · singled to right, Caminero scored and Fraley scored.
Lead flipTBTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 59% WP
Caminero · singled to right, Simpson to third.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.04

D. Rasmussen

2-1 · 2.95 ERA

K. Gausman

2-2 · 3.09 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
44.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.8%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

1.8%

-42.2ppvs pre-game · TB favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+8.2

pp edge · TB

+1.20

CLV pp

3.0u · large

on TB

56.0%

±5.3pp band

3u large — +6pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+8.2pp

no calibration shift

Kelly

12.0%

3.0% sized

Decimal

2.00

+6.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 8.2pp · TB over TOR

▲
Model confidence90% conf
TB clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
TB is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
TB is 4-1 over its last 5; TOR is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▲
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp toward TB since open.
+0.5pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.3± 3.7low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 4.5low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.4high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.1± 0.7high
Daulton VarshoTOR
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.5± 2.5high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.9high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
1.7± 2.8high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.7± 1.5high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron BrooksTB
3.0± 3.3low
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.0± 1.6low
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.0± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Mon, May 11

TB★

Rays

30-13

vs56.0%TB

TOR

Blue Jays

18-26

TB 56.0%win prob44.0% TOR

TB 1554 · TOR 1488Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
C. Simpson★LF	2-3	3	3	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.496
J. Caminero★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Aranda★1B	1-1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT25.29
Y. Diaz★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Fraley★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
R. Palacios★2B	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.838
C. Mullins★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Feduccia★C	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Walls★SS	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team	8-19	19	6	8	5	0	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-3

1-3

1-1

0-2

1-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

1-2

Team

8-19

	Pitching
D. Rasmussen★SP	3.1	3	3	3	1	3	1
Team	3.1	3	3	3	1	3	1

Pitching

Player

D. Rasmussen★SP

3.1

Team

3.1

	Batting
G. Springer★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
Y. Pinango★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto★3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.123
D. Varsho★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.838
J. Sanchez★LF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.818
E. Clement★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Gimenez★SS	1-1	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
SPRINT27.560
B. Valenzuela★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	3-13	13	3	3	3	1	1	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI