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THE ONE Analytics
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COL logo
COL
1
Live13:06 - 2nd
MIN logo
MIN
1
Updated 9:25 PM ET
13:06 - 2NDTied
COL

COL

55-16-11

1
1
MIN

MIN

46-24-12

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
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Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 60-37
60%Last 30 · 256-174
Receipts →

Player projections

MIN vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    4.2± 1.9high
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    3.9± 1.7high
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN
    3.3± 1.6high

Goals

  • Matt BoldyMIN
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN
    0.5± 0.5high

Points

  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Mats ZuccarelloMIN
    1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2599+
  • Quinn HughesMIN · D
    DIST MI40.699+
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
    DIST MI35.399+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS4399
NHL·Mon, May 11·13:06 - 2nd/Seriestied 2-2/VegasCOL -155
Updated 0s ago

COL · top performer

COL
Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Vladimir Tarasenko

Vladimir Tarasenko

RW · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild · live

NHL · Box score

13:06 - 2ndTied
COL55-16-11
1
1
MIN46-24-12
COL55-16-11·MIN46-24-12
COL

COL

55-16-11

1
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

46-24-12

1
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Playoff series

COL leads series 2-1

May 4MINMIN6@COLCOL9
May 6MINMIN2@COLCOL5
May 10COLCOL1@MINMIN5
May 12COLCOL@MINMINtoday
May 14MINMIN@COLCOLupcoming
May 16COLCOL@MINMINupcoming
May 17MINMIN@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-15561%
MINMIN+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it's going

Tied 1-1 · 13:06 - 2nd.

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
COL011
MIN101

Period scoring

COL won 1 · MIN won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

COL
MIN

Play-by-play · 154 plays

period
event
player
  1. 2nd·6:08

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 1·MIN 1

  2. 2nd·6:08

    Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7)

    ·

    COL 1·MIN 1

  3. 2nd·6:05

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  4. 2nd·6:01

    TV Timeout

    COL 0·MIN 1

  5. 2nd·6:01

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  6. 2nd·6:01

    Yakov Trenin Closing hand on puck

    COL 0·MIN 1

  7. 2nd·5:57

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Vladimir Tarasenko

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  8. 2nd·5:55

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  9. 2nd·5:55

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    COL 0·MIN 1

  10. 2nd·5:36

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  11. 2nd·5:25

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  12. 2nd·5:23

    Brock Nelson saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  13. 2nd·5:15

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Nicolas Roy

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  14. 2nd·5:11

    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Mats Zuccarello

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  15. 2nd·5:08

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  16. 2nd·5:08

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 0·MIN 1

  17. 2nd·5:06

    Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  18. 2nd·5:03

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  19. 2nd·5:03

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 0·MIN 1

  20. 2nd·5:02

    Valeri Nichushkin Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  21. 2nd·4:37

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  22. 2nd·4:35

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  23. 2nd·4:27

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  24. 2nd·3:39

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Nico Sturm

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  25. 2nd·3:39

    Puck in Netting

    COL 0·MIN 1

  26. 2nd·3:38

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Brock Faber

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  27. 2nd·3:16

    Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Daemon Hunt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  28. 2nd·2:42

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  29. 2nd·2:42

    Zach Bogosian Interference against Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

  30. 2nd·2:36

    Yakov Trenin hit Logan O'Connor

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

19

Shots

4

50.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

6

13

Faceoffs W

15

2

Blocks

13

7

Giveaways

5

3

Takeaways

0

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/MIN +130

DraftKings · via ESPN